DNA Edit: Maldives impasse

The constitutional crisis and the state of emergency in the Maldives have triggered a churning in the Indian Ocean region. With New Delhi and Beijing taking a keen interest in the island-nation’s domestic politics, a fraught situation in the Maldives has ripple effects far beyond its shores, sometimes even triggering a spectre of war.

Reports of the presence of 11 Chinese warships in the Eastern Indian Ocean, though denied by the Indian Navy, have lent credence to fears that another India-China stand-off, following the Doklam face-off, could be in the offing.

Since the naked Chinese ambition to rule the waves and control the maritime trade route has left little to speculation, countries in the region — particularly India — have every reason to thwart Beijing’s designs. Maldives’ strategic location makes it extremely important in the Indian Ocean dynamics.

Though its previous President was an Indian ally, the current head of State, Yameen Abdul Gayoom, is a friend of the Chinese. Gayoom, having signed up for the Belt and Road Initiative, aspires to be a beneficiary of Beijing’s largesse.

He hasn’t learnt from the mistakes of the debt-ridden Sri Lanka, which had to hand over the strategic port of Hambantota to China on a 99-year lease. The Chinese strategy to ensnare nations – first plying them with huge loans and then tightening the screws on repayment – has been consistent.

It is on display in the Maldives as well, with the Chinese government investing heavily to upgrade the island’s infrastructure – refurbishing the capital city’s airport, constructing the China Maldives Friendship Bridge, and building a mammoth housing project. India, on its part, has been slow to wake up to the fast-expanding Chinese footprint in the island.

Beijing’s increased involvement has come at the cost of India’s recent spell of indifference to the socio-political upheavals in the Maldives. China has exerted its influence to stop the United Nations from intervening in the Maldives crisis even when democracy is at stake.

Its near-absolute control over the Maldives impasse has left little room for New Delhi to manoeuvre. By bolstering its military presence in the region, Beijing has now shifted the theatre of war, albeit temporarily, from South China Sea to the Indian Ocean.

If indeed Chinese warships are patrolling the region, both India and the US should immediately step up their defence cooperation. For Beijing, the current situation offers yet another pretext to act as the gatekeeper to a region through which, reportedly, 97 per cent of India’s trade by volume is conducted.

It’s almost certain that the Maldives will go the Sri Lankan way when it fails to pay up the Chinese and thus cede control over its crucial ports and strategic assets. Besides naval presence, India needs to act diplomatically as well before the situation spirals out of control. China’s economic and military muscle is detrimental to geopolitical stability. It’s heartening to know that Australia, India, Japan, and the US are considering an alliance to counter China’s growing influence.

A global movement of this magnitude can restore the balance of equations in South Asia and the regions beyond.