DNA Edit: It pays to be wary about the Trump-Kim meet

It’s too early to call the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Democratic Republic of North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong-un ‘historic’. What appears in the joint declaration, such as ‘the United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula’ is just fanciful words. The gulf between intent and real progress is immense, especially when it involves two extremely unreliable leaders who have scant respect for their own commitments. Yes, a start has been made, and what follows from the Singapore summit will be a litmus test of the abilities of both Trump and Kim. North Korea, reeling under economic sanctions, couldn’t have survived further isolation. 

For Trump, the summit was a wonderful opportunity to shore up his stature at home and abroad since his achievements have been appallingly meagre. The US has conveniently side-stepped some thorny issues, most importantly, the human rights violations committed by the Kim regime because it doesn’t want to fritter away the gains by upsetting the dictator. The dictator, on the other hand, finds it mighty flattering that he could force the most powerful man to talk peace with him. Kim, thanks to his nuke kitty, could avoid the gruesome fate that befell Iraq’s Saddam Hussein. However, it would be foolhardy to think that the North Korean leader will carry out a comprehensive denuclearisation programme. The weapons are his talisman against US expansionist policies. With China in his neighbourhood, and US’s increasing military presence in the region, Kim knows that his days would be numbered if he falls for the US bait. If Trump had bothered to go back in history to evaluate US’s engagement with North Korea, he would know how embarrassing it became for former President Bill Clinton when his Agreed Framework deal came a cropper. North Korea was cheating on the agreement by trying to develop nuclear material through highly enriched uranium. 

A frustrated Barack Obama had fared no better either since all he could do was impose sanctions, which again Pyongyang survived with Beijing’s covert assistance. A bogeyman like Kim has always come in handy for China, and Chinese President Xi Jinping will not sacrifice this leverage, given its worsening relations with the US. It is North Korea that will play the carrot and stick policy with the US, and not the other way round. It would threaten to derail the peace process if the US aid package flounders. Trump, whose art of diplomacy leaves a lot to be desired, might not be able to handle such a wily friend. It would be a matter of time when things returned to square one. US should not view this deal as a concrete development to up its ante against Iran. The road ahead is a lot more slippery than what Trump has envisaged. If he truly wants peace on the Korean peninsula, it’s imperative to involve China in the process.