For Narendra Modi, 2014 will not be an easy road

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is excited. He is sitting on fast for ‘communal harmony’ even as his website warns people not to disrupt his efforts. And he has been given what he thinks is a clean chit by the Supreme Court which is, of course, far from the truth. And the Americans have projected him in an internal report as possible prime minister of India in 2014. His cup is brimming, and the man responsible for the 2002 massacre of Muslims is now looking at a national verdict in his favour.

 

The media that reported the violence in great detail — after all TRP ratings at that time demanded it — is now working to give Modi a head start. After all, he is a favourite with corporate honchos, many of whom have stepped out of turn to praise the man. He is being projected as a good administrator, a man who knows his mind, and a politician who can give the BJP the respect and credibility it lost through internal bickering and an empty agenda over the past few years. So all in all, a good choice for the prime minister is the consensus of the media/corporates/ Establishment, a powerful trio by all standards.

 

It is tragic that political parties like the Congress have, through a policy of complete drift and indifference, been unable to provide a feasible alternative for the voters in Gujarat. The result is that the field has been left clear for Modi who manages to win the elections, allowing the BJP to project his victory as the democratic choice of the electorate. All involved happily forget that democracy, to be vibrant and genuine, is all about options, about choices, about the right to vote, which in Gujarat has been clearly suppressed for many in the name of religion.

 

Very few who have not been directly at the receiving end realise the trauma of the 2002 pogrom, and the wounds and scars that still serve as terrifying reminders for the survivors and others. The dissent thus is silent, as one has seen in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar for decades, where the backward castes and the dalits could not come out and vote for fear of violent reprisal. It has changed to some extent, but not sufficiently.

 

A free and fair election is where all voters feel empowered to cast their vote, and exercise their right to choose a representative who has their concerns at heart. Unfortunately a free and fair election in the Indian parlance has been reduced to a day of peaceful voting, and not visible coercion of voters. And the choice before the voter is reduced to either just one party, as in Gujarat, or a set of candidates who have got party nominations on the base of their muscle or money power.

 

These are, thus, false choices with the voter exercising his franchise for an individual who would normally have never been his/her choice. This is why the demand for electoral reforms is gathering ground, to provide a genuine choice to the people when it comes to the vote. And this is why all political parties and leaders, including Modi, are opposed to electoral reforms that might dilute their appeal, and create space for true democracy.

 

Zakia Jafri, the ageing widow of the slain Congress leader Ahsan Jafri, is still fighting for justice. He was killed, along with 69 others, on February 28, 2002, by a violent mob. His telephone calls to Congress leaders and officials in Ahmedabad and Delhi went unheeded. Congress president Sonia Gandhi, on her long delayed visit to violence-scarred Ahmedabad, did not visit Zakia Jafri because the Congress was not sure what impact it would have on the non-Muslims in the state. It is this faulty thinking, the inability to embrace and strengthen secularism, that has made Modi, who before the massacre was a faltering leader facing almost certain defeat at the hustings, a figure far taller than he ever was. Secularism is an ideology that has to be pursued, nurtured and protected, it cannot be practiced by default. After all the fundamentalist forces of all religious hues work systematically to strengthen their divisive, communal ideology to a point where they can actually bring themselves to power with little to no resistance.

 

The BJP, sensing victory, is ringing all the communal bells at its command. While its president Nitin Gadkari is in hospital for a stomach operation that will help him eat less, his cronies in arms are getting into the Advani and Modi camps. Factionalism will of course be a major obstacle in what Modi hopes will be his ride to power in Delhi. Another bigger obstacle will be the reluctance of the allies, like the Janata Dal-United to support Modi for fear of losing the Muslim and secular vote entirely. If the allies ditch the BJP, then it must get a full majority of 273 seats in Parliament to bring Modi in as prime minister on its own steam. This is not going to happen easily, and Modi might find that the 2014 elections that he seems now to be preparing for, a major let down. His candidature, if at all, is going to unleash a storm of protest across India as fortunately secularism is not dead, and there are many who would not like the country to be led by a politician who has not been able to wash off the blood on his hands in a court of law.

 

The resistance to Modi has come from civil society, and a few political parties who could have done far more in and outside Gujarat on this issue. But civil society was able to impress upon the US, UK and other countries to not issue a visa to Modi; civil society ensured that whenever he travelled outside Ahmedabad he was made to feel accountable; and it is civil society again that has filed any number of cases in the courts that might still have to reach a verdict, but have at least shackled the chief minister. The fight back has been strong, as secularism still thrives in India, and violence of the 2002 (or for that matter 1984) kind is not going to be accepted by those who want to see this country get out of the morass of communalism, and march ahead with its head held high.

 

The writer is a senior Delhi-based journalist