‘Unsettled prelude to the 18th Party Congress in Beijing’

Arrangements are being finalised for the 18th Party Congress expected to convene in Beijing on October 18, 2012. The conclave of senior and veteran leaders in the seaside resort of Beidaihe concluded in early August, with apparent broad consensus on the candidates for the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) and Politburo (PB). Delegates to the Party Congress will now elect a candidate from a panel of two or three among those short-listed, except for Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, who will almost certainly be appointed President and Premier respectively.

Clarity is absent, though, on whether the PBSC will be reduced in size from nine to seven and last minute negotiations for the appointment of candidates continue. Speculation is rife in Beijing that Shanghai Party secretary Yu Zhengsheng, a ranking ‘princeling’, and Inner Mongolia Party Secretary, Hu Chunhua, who is a Hu Jintao favourite, may not enter the PBSC.

Xi Jinping’s absence from public view from September 1, further fuelled rumours—but he surfaced on the 15th. In the midst of this Guangdong Party Secretary, Wang Yang, another Hu Jintao favourite once regarded as competitor to the now ousted Bo Xilai for a berth in the PBSC, apparently acknowledging neo-Maoist sentiments travelled to Yan’an in August and laid a wreath on Mao Zedong’s statue!

In the past six weeks Xi Jinping, in a bid to garner support, reportedly met Hu Deping, who along with other ‘princelings’ including Xi Jinping’s elder sister has been politically active since mid last year. Hu Deping is a proponent of political and economic reforms and son of the popular deceased General Secretary Hu Yaobang. Xi Jinping separately urged Party members to more vigorously push reforms to stave off social and economic anomie.

Official media reports suggest the Party Congress document is almost finalised. It recommends a renewed push for reforms including, significantly, a reduced role for State owned Enterprises (SoE), implying an enhanced role for private business. It is likely to recommend a lowered growth rate and promote ideological education and ‘socialist values’.

Party members are being persuaded to accept the document. A 3-part commentary entitled “The Political Legacy of Hu and Wen” by Deng Yuwen, Deputy Editor of the weekly ‘Study Times’ owned by the Central Party School, has meanwhile attracted attention. It appreciated the two leaders for their initiatives in political and economic reforms, but blamed them for “creating more problems than accomplishments.”

In the interregnum, some recent appointments suggest coordination between Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping. The appointment of 65-year old Guo Jinlong, only a Central Committee member, as party secretary of Beijing is one.

Normally held by a person close to the party general secretary, Beijing Party Secretaries have traditionally been PB members. Interestingly, Guo Jinlong has served in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) from 1993-2004, where he advocated faster economic development while remaining relentless in the ‘struggle’ against the Dalai Lama, though without needless repression.

Equally surprising was Ling Jihua’s appointment on September 1, as Director of the Party’s United Front Work Department. A sixth generation leader on a fast track, Ling Jihua was shifted from his position as Director of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee (CC)’s General Office, which is a crucial post responsible directly to the Party General Secretary, just weeks before his widely anticipated promotion to the PBSC. This generated speculation, including that he was penalized for his son’s involvement in a car accident while in a Ferrari with two girls from the Central Nationalities Institute. Though both posts are that of Minister, Ling Jihua will no longer enjoy the earlier proximity to the centre of power.

Ling Jihua’s appointment could, however, have other implications. He is familiar with Hu Jintao’s thinking and has worked closely with Xi Jinping over the past two years. He is privy to the Party’s inner thinking on issues, including Tibet. Consequent to Hu Jintao’s success in changing policy and defusing tension with Taiwan, high priority on Xi Jinping’s agenda will probably be the two important, intractable issues now confronting the leadership, namely the South China Sea issue and problem of Tibet and Xinjiang. Focus on the latter will enhance Ling Jihua’s and the United Front Department’s profile.

Curious in this backdrop is the recent appearance in a ‘liberal’ mainland Chinese magazine of an article written by Xi Zhongxun, Xi Jinping’s father, eulogizing the 10th Panchen Lama. First published in People’s Daily on February 20, 1989, the article emphasises Xi Zhongxun’s friendship with the Panchen Lama, but stresses that both were loyal to the Chinese Communist Party, thus leaving the article open to interpretation.

(The author is a former additional secretary in the Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India)