The importance of being Mulayam Singh

As petroleum minister Jaipal Reddy argues for a price increase, the first question that comes to mind is the longevity of this coalition. With Mamata Banerjee playing her role as an adroit sweeper-back, blocking every reform that tries to slip through, it’s impossible for Manmohan Singh to run this unstable government. He has already been embarrassed enough by the railway budget fiasco. It’s impossible to see this government moving an inch if Mamata is going to stay on.

If this government survives till the end of this year, it will only be possible by replacing Mamata with a more malleable ally. And the name that is doing the rounds after Congress overtures is that of Mulayam Singh Yadav. Not that any political partner — even Mulayam — will be keen to rescue this government without demanding his pound of flesh. Already, noises made in Lucknow suggest that Mulayam is playing hard to get. He is unwilling to enter into any steady arrangement. He remains non-committal. He will rather remain an outsider, extending issue-based support to a “non-communal” coalition.

Mulayam Singh has convincing logic not to take that final step which would carry him into the waiting arms of the Congress. If we rewind to all that which transpired in 2008, we’ll understand Mulayam’s hesitation. The Samajwadi Party gained nothing by bailing out the UPA-I for a brief six month period. Instead, the party faced humiliation as it got embroiled in the cash-for-vote scam during the trust vote. Mulayam lost his old friendship with the Left, whom he replaced as an ally.

But all that happened when Mulayam relied overmuch on his Sancho Panza, Amar Singh. Now that he concentrates essentially on Uttar Pradesh and has moved away from the charm and charisma of the celebrity circus, he knows that Congress can’t be his natural ally. They share the same secular space for which they’ll have to confront each other once the general elections come along. The Congress may never have been friends with the OBCs but it wants a major slice of the Muslim vote. Mulayam knows he needs to be wary of the Congress.

Mulayam is also acting on the advice of his senior colleagues who are unwilling to bite the bait of a senior Cabinet berth for their leader. They believe that with this historic win in Uttar Pradesh, Mulayam has acquired a stature which should automatically earn him a post equivalent to a deputy Prime Minister. He has been the defence minister before during the United Front government of the mid-90s. Holding that same portfolio sixteen years later doesn’t make much sense. Neither has the Congress offered any of the money-spinning, lucrative ministries like petroleum, civil aviation, power or coal to his party.

The senior SP leadership argues that it will be better for Netaji to plan and prepare for a Third Front which looks a distinct possibility now that there is a likelihood of several non-UPA, non-NDA parties faring well in the next elections.  True, the probable Third Front partners haven’t congealed well enough at the moment. There have been no discussions in public, no apparent reaching out to each other but that doesn’t mean such an alliance will not materialise once the momentum is in its favour. By 2014, there may be adequate political realignment to alter the present course of politics.

Mulayam has made two significant statements suggesting that he expects the polls to happen a year earlier than schedule. First, he told a press conference that he doesn’t want to become an integral part of a government which mightn’t last more than a year. Secondly, he told a convention of workers to prepare for snap polls which were destined to happen in a year’s time. Mulayam has studied the volatility of the Mamata phenomenon and doesn’t see the government surviving her onslaught for more than twelve months.

Maybe Mulayam is posturing but there’s no doubt he’s making a fine distinction between being part of the government and extending support from outside. As someone positioned beyond the outer perimeter of the ruling dispensation, he retains the right not to vote with the treasury benches on issues of his choice. That kind of an attitude can be unsettling to the government and can compel the ruling party to plead for Netaji’s generosity as it staggers from crisis to crisis. Mulayam has saved the government from possible embarrassment when the BJP moved amendments to the Presidential speech. He may lend similar support when the money bills are put to vote. But that is not guarantee enough; after all he isn’t married to the coalition.

The SP is one of those parties which know that the wind is in its favour. And a general election at the right time can scuttle its plans to grow further and acquire enough parliamentary seats to be able to dictate terms at the Centre. An ambitious Mulayam is looking for that significant national role now that he has handed over the reins of his state to his son, Akhilesh.

Diptosh Majumdar is national affairs editor of DNA