Pranab Mukherjee ahead in presidential race

Pranab Mukherjee has the most chances of becoming the next president. But vice-president Hamid Ansari could give him unexpected competition, while the ever-hopeful Karan Singh is not out of the race. And there is the Samajwadi Party favourite, APJ Abdul Kalam, but he won’t settle for anything less than being the consensus candidate.

Of those in the race, Mukherjee should be the most significant choice. Should he finally throw in his hat, it will be curtains for his political career and prime ministerial ambitions. But of all those in the running, he will bring the most political weight to presidency, and in these times of a weak Centre and strong states, some may baulk at that prospect.

Although Mukherjee will be a Congress candidate, he will certainly hope to get the backing of the BJP, which would be given if the principal opposition party gets the vice-presidency. Sometimes, Congress leaders consider Mukherjee to be too friendly to the BJP, but he would still be better than a candidate sponsored by non-Congress parties who could, in theory, muddy the waters during 2014 government formation, even though that possibility looks dim.

Ideally, the Congress would prefer someone like Ansari, who is non-political, and can be arm-twisted, as when he shut down Rajya Sabha at a critical juncture of the Lok Pal Bill discussions.

Personally, there cannot be a better candidate than Ansari, a former diplomat and strategic analyst who is widely respected for his sobriety and learning. But he has no particular traction with the BJP, which would, for example, gain nothing by supporting him than Mukherjee, and cannot carry the other political groupings with him either. In short, he cannot win support on his own, and it is not clear that the Congress will go out on a limb to support him, especially if it is serious to field Mukherjee.

Which brings the ever-hopeful Karan Singh into the picture. For years, the former Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir has been nursing ambitions of being president. He will be an asset to that office. As a scholar of religious philosophy, he is a class apart, and if the Congress pushes with him, the BJP should have no problem. Karan Singh is non-controversial, he will be symbolically representative of Jammu and Kashmir (although Farooq Abdullah would be better), and internationally, he will be a hit. He is rated as one of India’s best ambassadors to the US.

As president, how will Singh balance the requirements of coalition politics? Will he be a Congress rubberstamp, hesitating, unlike Abdul Kalam in a previous innings, to return Union cabinet decisions for reconsideration? It is hard to say. Karan Singh is, ultimately, no one’s man. While known for constitutional rectitude, and understanding the limitations of the presidency, he will not be anybody’s stooge. The PM and cabinet will know they are dealing with a deep and wise man, and that it would not do to spring surprises on him. The same will be the case with Mukherjee.

And Kalam, for that matter. In this writer’s analysis, Kalam does not stand a second chance. The Congress did not give him a second term, holding him responsible for the inability of Sonia Gandhi to be prime minister.

For his first term, Kalam’s name was suggested by Mulayam Singh Yadav, who had opposed Sonia as PM on account of her foreign origin. Even if Mulayam does not intend to use Kalam to create trouble for Rahul Gandhi should the Congress come back with its own majority in 2014, it is a chance the Congress will not take. So Kalam does not look to have a second term, although he would make a fine president again.

But regardless of who occupies Rashtrapati Bhavan, the president will have a greater role to play in the next few years. Certainly, crucial decisions have to be taken after the 2014 general elections. But a weakened and tainted executive, non-governance, the environment of distrust of politicians, troubled civil-military relations, deepening coalition politics and the rise of states bring new burdens on the presidency. In the circumstances, political parties would prefer a presidential candidate with sound political sense and a history of even-handedness. Although he could be wrong, this writer is betting on Pranab Mukherjee.

NV Subramanian is the Delhi-based editor of www.newsinsight.net and writes on politics and strategic affairs.