Powerful allies Trinamool, DMK at Congress' throat

From the sublime to the ridiculous, Parliament has become the seat of drama, theatrics and threats as allies try and impose their will on a substantially weakened Congress. This was expected after the assembly results, but that it would take this hard a form was not envisaged.

Two powerful allies, the Trinamool Congress and the DMK, are currently at the throat of the Congress. Trinamool politics follows the personality of its leader Mamata Banerjee, moving from one extreme to another as the day progresses. She hit the Congress hard by attacking her own railway minister, Dinesh Trivedi, minutes after he presented the rail budget. In a strong reaction that had her MPs asking for their colleague’s head in Parliament, Mamata let it be known that the rail budget was not acceptable to her. And sources were prodded to suggest an alternative to Trivedi, who was asked to resign.

A visibly worried Congress went into a huddle at night and emerged with what it is hoping is a solution. That Trivedi could go, but only after the discussion on the rail budget is over, and the budget is also presented and discussed. Senior troubleshooter Pranab Mukherjee was authorised to ‘speak’ with Mamata, and at the time of writing this the crisis seems to have blown over for the immediate moment with the TMC declaring on the floor of the House that it never asked for Trivedi’s resignation. What course it will take is difficult to predict.

The DMK is under pressure now on the Tamil issue with the second Channel 4 documentary stirring deep anger and passion in Tamil Nadu and outside. It is now pressuring the government to move away from its stated position and support a UN resolution against the Sri Lankan government for the violence against innocent Tamils. The government has again adopted the role of an ostrich, and is hoping that the storm will pass without too much damage. It seems unlikely since the Tamil diaspora seems to have reorganised itself to some extent, and is exerting pressure on the political parties in India to take a position on what seems to have been a virtual genocide of not just the LTTE and its cadres, but the Tamil population also. The external affairs ministry was asked to summon the Sri Lankan envoy in the hope that this will suffice, but it seems unlikely at the moment.

The only relief is currently coming from the newly sworn in Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, who is keen to consolidate his government, and definitely not in a mood to confront anyone, let alone the Congress. His first priority will be funds to get some of the election promises off the ground, and while he has taken care to visit and meet political leaders across the spectrum, he has been soft and mellow towards the Congress. It is too early to predict the SP’s path in the journey towards the general elections, but for this budget session it is unlikely to rock the Congress boat at the centre.

It is true that political parties are not very keen for early elections, and while this mood might hold it will not be without extracting a price from the Congress. It is clear to the party that the days ahead are going to be tempestuous, to put it mildly, and it cannot call anyone’s bluff at this moment simply because in this game of poker, the maverick leaders of the regional parties are better players than the cautious, conservative leadership of the Congress party.

It must be stressed, however, that there is no real move among the regional parties to form a third or a fourth front at this stage. There is a general agreement to support each other on issues as and when these arise, but given the individual differences between the leaders it is perhaps too much to expect them to gel into a front at this stage. Besides they are quite happy with their respective positions in the NDA where the Janata Dal (U) is well looked after by the BJP, or in the UPA where now the Trinamool Congress and the DMK are enjoying an upper hand.

The game will become tense as the elections to the Rajya Sabha approach as these will have a direct bearing on the presidential polls. It is clear to the Congress that it will not be able to get its own candidate into Rashtrapati Bhawan, and talks have started with the allies for a consensus candidate for both the president and vice president posts. Here the SP, with its huge representation in the electoral college, will play a major role, and the Congress has taken a decision to keep it on the right side till at least the presidential polls are over. The party knows the importance of having a sympathetic president, particularly as the general elections are not likely to throw up a decisive result.

There is no reason to believe that the Congress will not last its full term at the moment, particularly as the leadership has decided to handle the allies with kid gloves, acquiescing to their every demand, and rushing to remove the creases and wrinkles from an increasingly unequal relationship. But it is also true that the party will get weaker as the days and months go by, and could find it impossible to present a confident front to the electorate at the end of the day. More so, as the party will be without a trump card with Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi, despite the hype, proving to be dummies in the UP elections.