North Korea's nuclear plunge — A calculated step

Nuclear ambitions of North Korea have long been evident but with the latest test Pyongyang seems to have finally made a decision to build long-range rockets and miniaturise a nuclear warhead, small and light enough to be carried by a missile. There are also reports that more tests will be coming soon. There is a lot of outcry in the international community about the possible consequences, even the Chinese are reportedly angry at the behaviour of their client state though they have mellowed down after an initial outburst. But is Kim Jong Un really acting irrationally in his pursuit of nuclear weapons?
The P-5 states — the US, Russia, China, France, and the UK — as well as Israel, India, and Pakistan are not hanging onto their nuclear weapons because of sheer bloody mindedness or because they just want to show off. They perceive nuclear weapons as having a clear strategic value in the current security environment. Nuclear weapons provide an insurance against an uncertain future, and are a clear deterrent against perceived current and emerging nuclear threats to their security. Nuclear weapons have relevance to these actors. In addition, there is an undeniable perception is that nuclear weapons also confer prestige and influence. Finally nuclear weapons mean that a state possessing them can never afford to be made to feel desperate. Once a state has nuclear weapons, other states can no longer afford to back it into a corner, or threaten its very existence.
North Korea has acquired nuclear weapons for the same reason that the above states retain theirs —specifically for deterrence against perceived external challenges, regime security, and to exploit the enhanced power and influence that comes with being a nuclear power. In all likelihood, North Korea will be unable to really exploit the ‘power and influence’ aspect because it lacks all the other essential elements — a functioning and stable economy, an ability to engage meaningfully with the international community, including something worthwhile to offer the international system. But with nuclear weapons, Pyongyang will gain a degree of regime security against perceived external challenges that cannot be ignored.
That is the perception of the regime, and certainly no one seems to be in a hurry to use military force against North Korea, given the risks that any retaliation by Pyongyang, as bloody and indiscriminate as it would be at the non-nuclear level, could escalate to a WMD level. This is why it is seriously doubtful that North Korea would ever give up its nuclear capabilities through a process of diplomatic negotiations, now that they have them. Iran is also making the same calculations as its partner in Pyongyang. If there is one lesson regimes like North Korea and Iran would have learnt from the invasion of Iraq, it’s that they should acquire nuclear weapons as soon as possible. The difference in the responses of the US towards North Korea and Iraq is there for all to see.
States operating in an anarchic international environment continue to make such “irrational” choices and India has been no exception. Though many in India continue to argue that Indian security has not really improved after 1998, no one who supported India’s nuclearisation claimed that once India comes out of the nuclear closet, all its security problems would be resolved and its stock would rise in the global community.
India’s nuclear tests changed the contours of the security architecture that was constructed during the Cold War. No doubt, with the end of the Cold War itself this security environment was under stress. But the Indian nuclear tests were the first open challenge, by a “responsible” as opposed to a “rogue” member of international community, to this system. It also brought into the open the details of the nuclear walmart being run by A.Q. Khan and his accomplices around the world with its headquarters in Pakistan and with the tacit collusion of China.
This was the beginning of the end of the non-proliferation regime, the bedrock of Cold War international security though international community has not yet agreed in an alternative. India’s open challenge to the global arms control and disarmament framework has led to its re-evaluation by the other major powers in the international system. Great powers have deftly used various arms control provisions to constrain the strategic autonomy of other states in the international system.
Indian nuclear tests were a direct challenge to the great powers and the result has been a gradual overhaul of the international security environment. The demise of international arms control is a small part of that overhaul. North Korea’s recent action has once again reminded the world that the non-proliferation regime is in terminal decline and unless ameliorative measures are taken urgently, a complete collapse is coming soon.