Narendra Modi’s defining moment will come after Gujarat poll

The message from Mumbai was mainly Narendra Modi. It is not as if the BJP’s recent national executive endorsed Modi’s candidature for prime minister. But he managed to hijack the meet and the signal went out that he is the most powerful leader in the BJP who could be its PM candidate.

Whether Modi can emerge as the BJP’s prime ministerial choice would depend on several factors. First, he has to win the Gujarat election due this winter. This is within the realm of possibility, for while the Congress had gained in some local elections, it does not have a state leader who can take on Modi. Rahul Gandhi had hoped to concentrate on Gujarat after UP, but is unlikely to do so now, having burnt his fingers in UP.

It is to quell any internal opposition — former CM Keshbhai Patel has again opened a front against him — that he made sure his old rival Sanjay Joshi was cut to size decisively. He was not prepared to let Joshi ‘just fade away gradually.’ Modi not only succeeded in ensuring a high profile exit for Joshi, he so played his cards that he also ended up becoming the main ‘breaking news’ at the apex meeting. The party, and the RSS, had to give in.

Clearly, it was part of a deal brokered by the RSS: Modi would not obstruct another presidential term for Nitin Gadkari and in return would get Joshi’s head. For the RSS, the continuation of Gadkari, ‘their man,’ had become all the more critical at a time when there is increasing defiance of its authority by many state satraps — be it BS Yedyurappa, Vasundhara Raje Scindia or for that matter Modi — who are becoming larger than the party.

The second imponderable is whether Modi can click in the rest of India like he has in Gujarat. So far, wherever he has campaigned outside Gujarat, he has not set the house on fire.

There is little doubt that he is the favourite of the BJP ‘karyakartas’ today, and this was evident in Mumbai, when he was applauded the most of all the chief ministers who spoke.

Modi’s acceptability will depend on how the mood evolves in the country in the coming months, particularly among the urban middle-class. They are increasingly getting restive with scam after scam coming to light and the government’s inability to control price rise or ease economic hardship. Could the disenchantment with what is being described as Manmohan Singh’s ‘weak’ leadership — Modi is already the darling of corporate India — turn into a clamour for a ‘strong’ leader, a slot Modi could fill? 

The RSS may not be disinclined to plump for him but would like to wait and see how the situation develops. The RSS is understood to have proposed a formula that LK Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi move out of the prime ministerial race and mentor younger leaders; that Gadkari concentrate on building the organisation; and the PM probables could be the ‘two LoPs — Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley — or a chief minister to be decided nearer the time.’ Since Modi leads the line up of CMs — this is also the way the BJP projected him in the hierarchy of CMs in its Mumbai posters — he could have a natural advantage.

The three factors that go against Modi are obvious. His projection as the BJP’s choice for PM would send the minorities scurrying into the Congress’s arms, giving an otherwise weakening party a new lease of life.

Modi would also press the panic buttons of allies, present and potential. Nitish Kumar has made it amply clear that he does not want to be seen with Modi — though Jayalalithaa enjoys a rapport with him. The BJP needs to add allies, not to lose them, to become a serious player.     

And thirdly, Modi’s projection will not be accepted so easily by the party’s brass, even though some kind of a truce has been worked out with Gadkari. And this will only go to reinforce the impression of a war within the BJP on the leadership issue. If there is one thing that has prevented the BJP from emerging as a clear alternative to a beleaguered Congress, it is leaders pulling in different directions. The absence of LK Advani and Sushma Swaraj at the public meeting in Mumbai had its own story to tell.

The defining moment for Modi will come only after the Gujarat election. But he is not likely to wait quietly, or leave things to the RSS. He is creating his own support group within the party — leaders with a mass base like Vasundhara Raje Scindia and  BS Yedyurappa, and ‘Yeddy’ recently gave a ‘Modi for PM’ call — which would be loyal to him, and  which would step up pressure in his favour at the appropriate time.

And lastly, it is the perception about him — that he presided over a violent chapter that India will take a long time to live down — that may be the clincher ultimately, particularly in a country as diverse and plural like ours. The battle of perception will be the hardest for Modi to fight — and overcome.

The writer is a political and social commentator