India’s next prime minister is…

Following the Samajwadi Party’s massive victory in Uttar Pradesh, Mulayam Singh Yadav has emerged as a strong contender for prime minister against Nitish Kumar in the likely event of a third front coming to power in 2014. While the BJP may not derive much advantage from the anti-incumbency wave affecting the Manmohan Singh government, the Congress, according to internal assessments, may be reduced to 96 seats in the next parliamentary polls.

Whenever general elections are held, the Congress faces a rout throughout the country except for pockets in Madhya Pradesh, where it is expected to do rather well, Assam and some smaller states. Congress insiders say it is certain that the party’s Lok Sabha tally will drop to below 100. There is dismay with this assessment. Worse for the Congress leadership, the broad hints coming from the states is that they would rather do without Rahul Gandhi’s electioneering. Digvijay Singh has become a virtual pariah after the Uttar Pradesh defeat.

The biggest winner by far is Mulayam Singh, and he is working the Left and Third Front circuits to push his candidature for prime minister. His argument is that being in alliance with the BJP in Bihar, Nitish Kumar cannot be called ‘secular’, and that the powerful new non-Congress chief ministers should back him for the top job. Because Uttar Pradesh has the largest number of Lok Sabha seats and the SP could win many of them going by current trends, his claim for prime ministership is strong.

But if anyone is a natural choice for prime minister if a non-Congress, non-BJP dispensation does well, it is Nitish. Mulayam has street-fighting qualities or had it when he was younger. But his reign of Uttar Pradesh was characterized by goonda raj. And in one sense, his son had to disown his father’s political legacy to win the trust of Uttar Pradesh. If Uttar Pradesh, by that token, has given the go by to Mulayam, the rest of the nation will scarcely embrace him. Nitish, however, is nationally acceptable.

All depends, of course, on how the two ‘national parties,’ the Congress and the BJP, do in 2014. While the Congress’s internal assessment is dismal post-Uttar Pradesh, the RSS is brutally downbeat about the BJP’s chances. The BJP has leaders aplenty but no workers, denounces the RSS, and it is not far off the mark.

After the 2004 loss, the RSS thought the BJP was disconnected from the people, and barring exceptions, the situation has not been remedied. Uttar Pradesh has once again exposed the infighting in the BJP.

It is unlikely that in the run up to the general elections, the Congress and BJP can reinvent themselves. The Congress remains imperious as ever and is unable to comport democratically with its allies or the opposition. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh began the budget session with a rather discordant statement: ‘We have the numbers.’ It tells how insecure the Congress-led central government is. And the BJP faces a leadership crisis with no one of AB Vajpayee’s stature on the national scene.

If the Lok Sabha polling gets localised, then the Congress and BJP will come under severe strain, with anti-incumbency worsening the plight of the Congress. If a third front projects Mulayam Singh as PM, the Congress may support him, if only to make him a figure of ridicule like Charan Singh or HD Deva Gowda, and to thus proclaim its superior credentials to rule India. Privately, there is no love lost between the Congress and Mulayam, who opposed Sonia Gandhi as PM candidate.

If Nitish gets propelled to the front, the BJP, despite reservations, will back him. On his Bihar record, Nitish will do well in the Centre. But he would have to work harder than Mulayam to get the Third Front’s backing, and he would not submit to Congress conditions (if it means breaking with the BJP in Bihar) to become PM. No crown than a crown of thorns suits Nitish better.

In sum, the political future looks clouded for the country with the only certainty that the Congress will drop to a historic low in the general elections while the BJP will struggle to maintain a national presence. Expect a prime minister from the North who belongs neither to the BJP nor to the Congress, or even a dark horse from anywhere.

— NV Subramanian is the Delhi-based Editor of www.newsinsight.net and writes on politics and strategic affairs