How a weak BJP has fired up UP’s Muslims

Uttar Pradesh’s Muslims have decided to vote for development and progress above issues like Babri Masjid. The young and the old spoke of the need for a better life, with more jobs and opportunities, insisting that issues like Babri Masjid were ‘history’, at least for now.

Most Muslims insisted that reservation was certainly not the determining factor. Development and jobs are the emerging consensus with the younger Muslims, who point out that they were tired of waiting now. “There seems to be no hope in sight, no one cares,” said Feroze Siddiqui a young lawyer in Domariaganj, maintaining that Muslims, like others, will now vote for the candidate and the political party best placed to fulfill its promises.

The BJP’s poor prospects have had an interesting side effect. As a Muslim candidate said, “it has freed us so that we can vote for any party and not necessarily the one that will defeat the BJP.” In the process, Muslims are fast deserting the BSP with the disaffection with Mayawati being openly voiced. ‘She has done nothing for us,’ is the refrain with the Muslim voter determined not to vote for the BSP except where there is an exceptionally good candidate.

There is no doubt that Rahul Gandhi’s high voltage campaign has generated some interest among Muslims, who have been turning up in larger numbers than earlier to listen to his speeches. However, as many who had attended his meetings pointed out, “but where is the party, there is no Congress here.”

The SP, after a brief Amar Singh-Kalyan Singh interlude, is again emerging as a favourite. Sensing this, Mulayam Singh Yadav is playing to the gallery, promising development, jobs, scholarships, grants and reservation for Muslims. He has been particularly vocal about communal harmony, more than the Congress, which has shied away from the issue of security and secularism.

The Muslim vote is decided only a couple of days before polling, and voters reminded us of this pointing out, “Dekhiye vote kahan palat ta hai.” The candidates, too, admit that these elections will demonstrate tactical voting, with the Muslims voting for secular parties’ winning candidates. This could differ from constituency to constituency, but the larger opinion seems to favour the Samajwadi party for whom the Muslims in UP have always had a soft corner.

Interestingly, Muslims still raise objections ranging from the Congress’s position on Babri Masjid to price rise to a weak state unit to poor candidates. Akhtar, a doctor, pointed out that the Congress was giving Rs25 lakhs to every candidate. “So, many come forward, take the money, spend some of it, save the rest and emerge far richer from the elections,” he said. 

Discussion about the SP is not ridden with questions and cynicism. There is approval that Mulayam has got rid of Kalyan Singh, and an admission that ‘yes we are considering the SP.’ This comes at a time when Muslims are reluctant to voice their preferences.

The Muslim vote determines the outcome of at least 130 assembly segments, and remains an influential part of the rest. In some segments it is as high as 50-60% as in Badaun, where voters point out that the BJP will win as all the other parties have fielded Muslim candidates who will cut into the vote. In Badaun, for instance, the Muslims seem to be interested in the Congress but a weak candidate is being seen more as a spoiler than a winner.

The Congress has left its campaign entirely to Rahul Gandhi, who is not willing to share the turf with local leaders. Even sitting MPs have not been involved. General secretary Digvijay Singh remains in charge, influencing decision on party tickets. There is considerable resentment and anger against him with the stronger candidates making it clear that they are fighting on their own steam.

The weak party organisation is not helping the weaker candidates who might get the money, but have to set up their own infrastructure for the campaign and for the crucial polling day. The absence of the party on the ground is being felt by both candidates and voters, many of whom said they could not vote for the Congress because it would be wasted. 

Internal surveys giving the Congress nearly 100 seats seem to be exaggerated as the party is in contest in specific constituencies where it has stronger, recognised candidates. The old votebank of Muslims, Brahmins and Dalits shows little sign of returning to the party in numbers large enough to give them a good share of the state’s 403 seats.

— The writer is a senior New Delhi-based journalist