From 9/11 to AA+: Downgrade, downfall, decline

Some believe the downfall of the United States of America began on 9/11. It was the first time the world’s foremost economic, technological and military power was shown to be vulnerable to an attack on its homeland, and that too by a cave-man. In a less obvious way, the attack also shook America’s confidence in itself.

And since then, the US has been battling several wars, the most serious being the war within, on the country’s path ahead.

True, the US is no different from other societies with its fissures and polarisations; just look at our own. In India, though, the chasm doesn’t seem to be widening: that some call the BJP the Congress’s B team just goes to show that our two main political parties are not fighting over ideology or vision, but over power. You can safely assume that no matter which of the two are in power, their approach to the economy, land acquisition or foreign policy will remain much the same.

A similar assumption was what credit ratings agencies like Standard and Poor’s held about America all these years, keeping the world’s largest economy on the list of risk-free borrowers with an AAA status: that no matter what kind of internal politics churned within, the US would ultimately act as one and solve its problems.

In downgrading the US to AA+, S&P’s has said that “the effectiveness, stability and predictability of American policymaking” had weakened and its confidence had reduced in America’s ability to manage its finances.

Ironically, America has been the world’s best problem-solver the past few centuries. Its vast territory, its abundant natural resources, the spirit of its settlers (even Biharis go to America and become the most productive people on the planet), and the success with which it constructed its nation has given America the confidence with which it faces its problems. In fact, the genial optimism of Americans was mistaken by our first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, for shallowness. However, it is that optimism which enables Americans, when faced with a problem, to throw all their resources at it; historically, to good effect.

You can take examples like their scientific and technological inventions and achievements (a recent example is the Human Genome project), but look no further than the US’s response to the 9/11 attacks. The problem on America’s hands was to prevent more terrorist attacks. Mumbaikars can appreciate that this is not an easy problem. Yet the Americans, through a combination of physical security measures inside the country and enhanced intelligence operations outside, have kept their country safe. There have been bungled attempts of attack and one day there may be a terrorist attack (and a terrible one at that), but I would argue that the US solved its problem. Its citizens do not live in fear.

Though the Americans solved the immediate problem of security that 9/11 presented, could their confidence have been dented irreparably? Could it be that the slow unraveling began to take place? After all, change is not something that happens overnight.

When it comes to countries and civilizations, change is almost geological. It is like smashing a boulder; it does not disintegrate if you hit it with a large hammer, but it eventually develops a crack, which grows until the boulder crumbles into rocks, which are then more easily smashed. Sort of like the UPA-2: each scam uncovered increases the crack, as does each attempt to evade accountability through a proper Lokpal Bill. But it has not yet crumbled. Perhaps it is in anticipation of a crumbling that Congress president Sonia Gandhi this week put in place a panel to run her party during her medical leave, a panel that included her son Rahul. Yet it was a vote of no confidence (a downgrade in rating, maybe) in the person who should naturally be in charge if the party president is indisposed, and that is the prime minister.

Contributing to the US’s current economic challenges are its demographics and accumulation of debt, by themselves not insurmountable problems. America has an incredibly large scientific and technological lead over other nations. It can sell spaceships and nuclear power plants and drone aircraft to India and China and get its factories moving again; it can rationalise its tax regime and raise the retirement age to help balance its budget and reduce its debt. Yet it appears that the country has lost self-confidence in agreeing on how to go about this.

Maybe America is not in decline and maybe this is just a batting slump. Or perhaps it is a decline that takes a few decades to play out. India and China are often (perhaps over-enthusiastically) mentioned as the next wave of economic and political power. If that is so, then India ought to get its house in order. There’s no point in dreaming about becoming a superpower if you can’t even get a government that has a parliamentary majority to solve its routine day-to-day problems.

— The writer is the Editor-in-Chief, DNA, based in Mumbai