Chinese defence minister’s visit to India is a tepid gesture

China’s policy of portraying apparently cordial political relations with its neighbours, especially those with whom it has unsettled sovereignty and territorial issues, is punctuated with high-level visits. As evidenced by the practice followed with Vietnam and the Philippines, however, this suggests no flexibility or dilution in Beijing’s position on territorial claims or other outstanding issues.

China’s official news agency, ‘Xinhua’, in fact, reiterated this last August when it separately warned Japan’s prime minister and Philippines president that good relations cannot be based only on strong economic ties, but require “commitment to a proper settlement of the maritime disputes in the South China Sea”.

As part of this effort, China’s defence minister General Liang Guanglie is due to arrive in Mumbai at the head of a large delegation on a 3-day visit to India in early September 2012. Liang Guanglie’s first visit to India will, rather pointedly, be preceded by a 5-day visit to Sri Lanka.

Liang Guanglie commenced a five day visit to Sri Lanka on August 29. China has announced a grant of $1.5mn for modernisation of the Defence Services College in Colombo for the children of security forces personnel and Sri Lankan police. During his tour, Liang Guanglie will visit the Sapugaskanda Defence Staff College, Panagoda army cantonment, Galle and possibly Hambantota, where the Chinese are building a deep-water port.

China is separately giving Sri Lanka $100mn for army welfare projects. A recent reminder of expanding Chinese influence in Sri Lanka was Colombo’s decision, as reported by the media, to cancel the allocation of land to India in the heart of Colombo for a cultural centre and give it instead to the China National Aero-Technology Import & Export Corporation (CATIC).

Seventy one-year-old Liang Guanglie, as China’s defence minister, exercises no operational authority over the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), but does act as the interface between the PLA and the government, or State Council, and between the Chinese Ministry of Defence and foreign military establishments and governments.

He oversees matters relating to the defence budget, personnel, recruitment etc. and, in that capacity, would be aware of the state of preparedness of the PLA. He is a member of the 17th Central Committee (CC) of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and of the powerful Central Military Commission.

Liang Guanglie is, however, due to retire after the 18th Party Congress, which latest reports emanating from Beijing suggest is now scheduled to be held around October 18, 2012. Liang Guanglie’s name, along with that of other senior PLA officers, nonetheless figures in the list of the 251 PLA personnel selected to be delegates to the upcoming Party Congress.

Interestingly, the decision to send Liang Guanglie on a visit appears to have been taken only last month. Earlier, in February this year, Beijing had initiated preparations for a visit to India by vice-president Xi Jinping. Chinese academics, China’s ‘India-hands’ and their interlocutors in India were confidentially tasked by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to ascertain areas of India’s interest and concern.

They were told that Xi Jinping, ‘who is almost certain to take over from President Hu Jintao at the 18th Party Congress’, had a “special interest in Tibet and water issues”. They were asked to elicit India’s response to this, as well as whether New Delhi expected the Indian Ocean to figure prominently in the new Chinese administration’s foreign policy blueprint, and how India would like the new administration to approach the issues of India’s energy exploration in the South China Sea and balance of trade.

Liang Guanglie’s visit materialises at a delicate juncture in India-China relations, when the PLA has conducted at least three military exercises across India since the beginning of the year. The PLA Daily reported on July 20 that new surface-to-air missiles designed for high altitude were test-fired in Tibet and aimed, for the first time, at “enemy aircraft from the south east direction”. On August 10, Chinese air force J-11 aircraft conducted a live missile firing exercise inside Tibet. Earlier this year, an Indian Navy ship and ONGC survey vessel were singled out for warnings while in the South China Sea. His visit also comes just weeks after India’s premier foreign Intelligence agency warned the Government about the high probability of a Chinese military offensive along the approximately 4057 km-long disputed borders. 

Recent attempts by China at alleviating Indian concerns have been tepid. It includes permitting India’s ambassador in China to tour the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). Quite unusually, China also for the first time escorted an Indian military delegation, led by a Major General, on a visit to Lhasa for a day on July 11. The Indian Army delegation was allowed to interact with a PLA regiment. These gestures, though, remain mere palliatives.