Cabinet reshuffle on the cards

There has been talk of an imminent Cabinet reshuffle for more than a week. In the wake of the latest defence controversy, a desperate government appeared to be in a hurry to introduce significant changes in its decision-making team. Ultimately, as the think-tank comprising Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh and a few of their confidantes mulled over a new-look leadership, they decided that an unseemly rush should best be avoided.

Again, caste and regional considerations impacted their thought process. Even as the UPA chairperson along with Manmohan Singh wants to evaluate the performance of the ministers on the basis of competence and performance, there are too many ancient barriers. The politician is defined by his background and by the popularity he enjoys among communities and caste groups. These factors can never be ignored.

The Congress party knows that it can’t take risks and think differently because it continues to be one of those unstable chemical compounds which are so combustible that they might explode long before the temperature reaches the boiling point. So, the reshuffle will be hemmed in by tradition and will not be open to a great deal of experimentation. In any case, we’ll have to wait till the budget session is over before the Prime Minister and Sonia Gandhi take up the incomplete reshuffle agenda again.

The question now uppermost on the minds of those who keep track on the inner workings of the government is whether all this talk about “fundamental changes” will lead to complete transformation or just be a set of predictable, cosmetic changes. Will it hand over the reins of real power to a new generation of ambitious young men or will it allow the same set of senior courtiers to dominate the political landscape?

Unlike the BJP, the Congress has a more settled middle-rung but that doesn’t mean the competence levels of the leaders don’t vary. Even in the upper tier of this middle rung, the stature of external affairs minister S.M.Krishna is not comparable with the towering personality of the five-foot-three-inches Pranab Mukherjee. Defence Minister A.K.Antony survives in the top echelons by virtue of being a steady Sonia loyalist, but not many will put this financially clean Kerala politician in the same bracket with Mukherjee after his inept handling of his ministry since the beginning of the age row.

Will the Congress have the courage to make dramatic changes at the topmost hierarchy?  Will the big four, comprising Mukherjee, Chidambaram, Antony and Krishna, be touched? If not, then the Congress’ grand plan of bringing about structural alterations is a damp squib. There is a view in favour of retaining Krishna because the external affairs ministry has long lost its lustre and sheen now that the Prime Minister himself guides the country’s foreign affairs. Any presentable leader, who is adequately versed in the diplomatic idiom, will suffice.

But, viewed from a pure political perspective, none of these top four are in a position to rebuild a discredited government’s image. Mukherjee, despite the aura of efficiency, has not been able to guide the country’s finances out of the rut and give the common man any solace by curbing prices. Chidambaram has come under a cloud of suspicion since telecom crusaders began linking him to the 2G accused Raja, Antony has not emerged unscathed from the defence-related altercations and Krishna is not convincing enough as a foreign minister who regularly comes up with new ideas and initiatives.

Immediately below this layer, is a group of politicians who have come up in Prime Minister or Sonia Gandhi’s estimation to form the lower rung of the top tier. Kapil Sibal, Anand Sharma, Salman Khurshid and Jairam Ramesh are among the many names that constitute this particular hierarchy. Of them, Sibal has been slowly losing substantial credibility with his many off-the-cuff utterances, especially the contentious statement on “zero loss” to the exchequer in the 2G scam. Salman Khrushid showed how politically naive he can be when he played up the Muslim quota and Batla House encounter issues during the Uttar Pradesh elections.

There are some ineffective regional satraps who have been gradually marginalised, and are now managing portfolios which are of lesser significance. To illustrate, one can cite the names of Vilasrao Deshmukh and Virbhadra Singh. The question is how long will they be carried along as mere passengers. There is not much contribution from either and those portfolios could help bring in younger faces into the Cabinet. Again, concerns about caste and regional configurations prompt such unjustifiable choices.

Already Rahul Gandhi has warned that heads will roll once he fixes accountability for the UP debacle. Does that mean any or most of the Uttar Pradesh ministers like Khurshid, Beni Prasad Verma and Sriprakash Jaiswal will be axed? It is doubtful that the Gandhi mother-son duo will muster such courage. Till now, most UPA reshuffles have been like a game of musical chairs and very few have been unceremoniously shown the door.

Along with the Cabinet restructuring, there is a pending reshuffle in the All India Congress Committee. Here again, the Congress needs to be tough and unforgiving. But is the Congress really ready for a drastic overhaul?

Diptosh Majumdar is national affairs editor of DNA