A test for Rahul’s magic wand

Sporting at times an unshaven look, with hairstyle not totally immaculate or in fashion, what political message is Rahul Gandhi really trying to convey ahead of the UP assembly polls?

That he is going all out to reach out for their electoral support and isn't left with enough time to even shave? Or should be this viewed as his attempt to shed the elitist, clean-shaven look, which may help voters 'easily' accept him as their leader? Certainly, he and his sister Priyanka - draped in a saree- are experts at flashing wide smiles at people around them, waving hands and also folding hands symbolically saying 'Namaste.' These are picture-perfect images for the media, conveying that they are 'interacting' with the people, not just from the political stage.

Definitely, Rahul has succeeded in capturing substantial media attention with him now being projected as a 'kingmaker' in UP politics. If Rahul's political strategies fail to ensure a major victory for the Congress, according to some political speculations, it would not be possible for any party to form the next state government without Congress support.

Rahul is optimistic that his strategies will succeed in turning the Dalit vote-bank, Mayawati's main political plank, in the Congress's favour. Rahul has earned substantial media coverage by eating at Dalits' residence and interacting with them. The Congress's Dalit card is weakened by the hard fact that it has not projected any Dalit CM nominee. Mayawati's prospects of being ousted from power remain dim till a substantial dent is created in this vote-bank.

With Muslims viewed as the decisive factor in at least 100 seats, Rahul has not wasted efforts in reaching out to them too. Where Mayawati is concerned, Muslims are fairly conscientious of the fact that during her rule they have not faced any major communal conflict or violence.

If Rahul succeeds in turning UP votes in favour of the Congress, this will facilitate his stepping onto the central stage as the Congress's PM candidate.

Considering that the Congress won only 22 seats in 2007 and 25 in the 2003 UP assembly polls, only a magic wand can help Rahul turn the political tide here in his party's favour. In 2007 elections, Mayawati's party bagged 206 seats, against winning less than 100 in 2003. Only her party had won more seats in 2007 than in 2003, while the fate of all other major parties had witnessed major losses.

Rahul's fate in UP is dependent on whether he succeeds in denting Mayawati's prospects of returning to power. Mayawati has a strong control over her party. The last point cannot be said about other parties in the race, including the Congress. Some hype has been created about other rivals, particularly the SP and the BJP faring better than earlier. Ever since former PM Atal Behari Vajpayee retired, the BJP has suffered setbacks in UP. In the SP, senior leaders are not pleased at the party being used as a family domain by Mulayam Singh Yadav, who has handed over charge to his son Akhilesh.

Though Rahul has spared no chance in targeting Mayawati on the grounds of corruption and ill-governance, he has yet to cover the entire state. With less than a month left for elections, Rahul has not completed campaigning in even a third of assembly constituencies of UP. However people- and media-friendly Rahul may have appeared in constituencies he has covered, it does not ensure a favorable response for the Congress throughout UP. Secondly, the Congress has taken a lot of time in finalising its list of candidates. Most candidates aren't left even with a month to campaign. There is a view that perhaps the Congress has deliberately indulged in this strategy. If the Congress fares well, Rahul can easily take credit it. If it fails, the blame may be passed on to weak candidates.

Definitely, Rahul has succeeded immensely in ensuring key support from his party and gaining considerable media coverage. The other parties have not been so successful. Will Rahul retain this lead electorally too? Politically, this has seldom been the rule. There has always been a significant gap in media coverage gained by parties in the race and the votes won by them. Not surprisingly, this reality has led to questions like whether the Congress is banking on media hype about Rahul. How many more seats does the Congress expect to gain this year, compared to its performance in 2003 and 2007 polls? Now, it is to be watched whether Rahul's magic wand will work or not!

Nilofar Suhrawardy is a freelance journalist, who spent several years in the US and specialised in communication studies and nuclear diplomacy. Her book, Ayodhya without the Communal Stamp in the Name of Indian Secularism, is a communication-oriented analysis