Will slow pace of ‘Bullet Train’ project hurt Japan ties?

Shinzo Abe’s re-election as the Prime Minister in October last year has provided him another three years to continue his efforts to revamp Japan’s domestic and foreign policy orientations. However, it is equally true that in recent months, Abe has started facing several challenges. On the domestic front, he faces the allegation of favouring ultra-nationalist associates involved in establishing a kindergarten and a veterinary medicine faculty. In fact, the allegations have reached such a pitch that many people have started protesting against Abe, demanding his resignation. Recently, Junichiro Koizumi, a former Japanese Prime Minister, told a reporter that ‘the situation is getting dangerous’ for Abe and questioned whether he might resign when the current session of Parliament ends in June. 

On the foreign policy front, too, Abe faces several challenges involving Japan’s national interests. While Japan has expressed its fears about peace talks between North and South Korea, the Abe government has expressed its reservation over the Trump administration’s decision to hold talks with the leader of North Korea Kim Jong-un. An assertive China, led by a confident Xi Jinping, has also emerged as a major foreign policy issue for Japan.

Keeping these factors in mind, Prime Minister Abe has swiftly focused on enhancing Japan’s military capabilities and reducing its security dependability on the US by fostering a strong regional realignment. Of course, improving ties with India has consequently become a top priority of the Abe administration. In fact, in the last few years, the two sides have transformed their bilateral ties significantly. At a time when Beijing continues to exercise its assertive posturing in the South China Sea, Abe’s visit to India last year was significant. Modi and Abe said differences should be resolved through dialogue and all countries, large or small, should enjoy the freedom of navigation, sustainable development, and a free, fair, and open trade and investment system. To check China’s rise in the region, among other factors, the two leaders also indicated the need to align Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy with India’s Act East Policy. 

The two leaders also decided to enhance defence and security cooperation and dialogues, including the Malabar and other joint exercises, defence equipment and technology cooperation in areas such as surveillance and unmanned system technologies, and defence industry cooperation. Modi and Abe welcomed the regular and institutionalised engagement through the annual Defence Ministerial Dialogue, the National Security Advisers’ dialogue, the ‘2+2’ Dialogue, the Defence Policy Dialogue, and the Service-to-Service staff talks. 

Japan’s readiness to provide its state-of-the-art US-2 amphibian aircraft was appreciated as symbolising the high degree of trust between the two countries. The two Prime Ministers have also looked to develop an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with the development of the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor. This effort will benefit various stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific region, including Africa, thus minimising China’s hegemonic ambition in the region.

In other areas, Japan has reiterated strong support for initiatives such as ‘Make in India’, ‘Digital India’, ‘Skill India’, ‘Smart City’, ‘Clean India’, and ‘Start-Up India’ and appreciated Modi’s economic reforms, especially the introduction of GST. The foundation and laying of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad high-speed rail project has marked another major highlight of the enhanced relationship. However, in recent times, the Japanese government and firms have started expressing their concerns about policies of the Indian government. 

To be more specific, the Japanese side argues that the vaguely worded agreement between the farmers and the state of Maharashtra, which includes a provision on the ‘Bullet Train’, stating that the interests of landowners will be fully addressed with respect to the construction of the high-speed railway will propel undue demands from the farmer’s side. This, in turn, will almost halt the slow process of land acquisition. 

Japan is also concerned about the fact that in the last three years since 2015, the Indian government has made unilateral changes in the Bullet Train project without consulting the other side. According to reports in the Japanese press, without any discussion with the Japanese side, India has decided to elevate 90 per cent of the entire railway line, increasing the total cost of the project many times over. New Delhi is also believed to have told Tokyo that the date of starting the operation of the high-speed train services will be moved up by one year from the original target date of 2023. Not only this, ever since a crack was found last December on a bogie frame of a shinkansen coach, there are concerns in Japan that India may now sound out other countries about manufacturing the rolling stock or demand more use of Indian products for the project.

Despite these concerns on the ‘Bullet Train’ project, the fact remains that India and Japan have shared security, economic, regional and other interests. Though the issue of the Bullet Train is an irritant, the two sides are more than likely to move forward to remove these obstacles to ensure timely completion of the highly-publicised project. On the security front, efforts to institutionalise the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) would help in further boosting ties. 

The author is a Visiting Fellow, National Chengchi University, Taipei. Views are personal.