The great circus is finally here

The Election Commission has announced the dates for Lok Sabha elections 2019. The polls will be held in seven phases from April 11 to May 19, with the results announced on May 23.

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi is hoping to get a second term on the plank of majboot sarkar (strong government) versus majboor sarkar (helpless government), the Congress, emboldened by three wins in the Hindi heartland states, is hoping to stop the BJP juggernaut.

National elections in India are akin to a circus. Groups of men from different parties camp across cities. They camp in a city for a month or so, campaign for their respective parties and return to the headquarters to wait for another round of elections.

There are national-level branded circuses like Congress and BJP, and regional ones like SP, BSP, DMK, TMC, BJD and others.

Lions (top leadership of national and regional parties), jokers/entertainers (spokespersons) and ringmasters (local heavyweight karyakartas or volunteers) are the mainstays of any circus.

Lions are fast becoming a rare species, while jokers are aplenty. Even the national level circuses have only one lion on whom they rely upon solely. He hops from one city to another, showing off his prowess. Jokers fill in the gap and entertain the crowd.

While lions of the circus draw crowds and get maximum applause, it is the ringmaster (local heavyweight karyakarta) who plays a key role in converting this audience into votes on D-Day. They fulfil the role of last mile connectivity.

The BJP is led by Narendra Modi. Modi hops from one city/circus to another, roaring his guts out. He attacks the other main contender/lion (Rahul) of the Congress’ circus in each appearance. BJP’s circus is very high-tech and is accompanied by a media blitz. The Congress circus, after an initial survival scare, has got back its confidence.

Their lion (Rahul) is also roaring, and has brought in sister lioness Priyanka to bolster the party’s prospects and draw more crowds compared to the BJP.

People bored with the same tricks of 15-year-old BJP circuses in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh opted for a new Congress circus in the recently-held Assembly election.

The Congress circus has many jokers/spokespersons who entertain voters and have been loyal to the lion family. The party though still lacks good ringmasters in key states. They have been disillusioned in most parts of country, with the lion’s unwillingness to take a serious plunge. The surgical strike 2.0 has also once again dented their confidence.

Regional, smaller circuses also boast of many lions. But they have limited influence; they believe they can challenge lions of national-level circuses, although the audience thinks otherwise.

There is a continuous fight for who will be king among regional lions. People do come to see them for the sake of curiosity, but have got bored over the years. They are fed up of these self-proclaimed lions, who in the end, queue up to national level circuses.

The depleting sales (seats) under the growing popularity of the BJP circus has forced state-level circuses, who have been competing for decades, to come to the table. Due to an existential threat from national-level circuses, mainly the BJP, some regional level circuses are forming alliances, like the Mahagathbandhan or grand alliance of SP-BSP in Uttar Pradesh.

Some have formed alliances with the BJP like JD(U), Shiv Sena and AIADMK. Some others are backing the Congress and have jumped onto their ship, like RLSP, JD (S), DMK and some others.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) made its debut in the Delhi Assembly election of 2013, just before the 2014 General Election. It didn’t boast of lions, jokers or ringmasters. It offered audiences an unique circus, where the audience as well as performers belonged to the same set of people. The tricks were determined through an SMS campaign. Aam aadmi by rotation got a chance to become a performer. Success in Delhi made the Aam Aadmi leader Arvind Kejriwal roar and put up himself for national contention (to become a lion).

But over the years, they copied other circuses and are following in their footsteps. Kejriwal is AAP’s lion. He eliminated internal competition by throwing them out of his circus. The audience is now bored of their tricks.

This circus also has gone the way of other regional circuses, now nearly begging for an alliance with the national circus Congress.

Elections have been like this in India for long. Protagonists of the circuses keep on changing. We have a lion (Modi) who has been roaring continuously for the last five years. People, including his own party, fear whether he will run out of steam before D-day.

The lion and lioness pair of the Congress is giving tough competition. The lion family in Congress has propped up “holy cows” in the past. But now the lion (Rahul) is confident of ‘mera time aayega’ (my time will come).

AAP was trying to prop up a new concept of an “aam lion”, but lions are not “aam aadmi”. They are special. If they appear “aam”, audience won’t worship them.

This has left the audience (voter) totally confused. They go in all the circuses, watch all the tricks but do not necessarily vote for the circus which amuses them the most.

The popularity of BJP’s lion is declining and Congress’ lion is improving. However, Modi is still the most popular among lions by far. The voter would vote for a lion who understands the country, issues faced by it, and has practical solutions for its problems. An interesting circus this time around.

Author is a political analyst