Rise and fall of Nawaz Sharif

The word ‘chequered’ denoting good and bad fortune is appropriate to qualify the trajectory of former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif who was sentenced on Friday (July 6)  to ten years in prison over financial transgressions. A three time Prime Minister of his country, Sharif had to face the ignominy of being pronounced guilty in absentia, for he is currently in London where his wife is in coma after suffering a heart-attack.

The fact that this verdict was pronounced, in the run-up to Pakistan’s  national elections on July 25 provides the political context to the rise and fall of  Nawaz Sharif (born  December 1949),  who is the most credible political leader in a beleaguered nation,  where the army remains the tenacious domestic  power broker  and self-appointed guardian of democracy and the Islamic faith.

Personal and professional misfortune have enveloped the Sharif family in a tragic manner,  for his daughter and political heir Maryam and her husband were also awarded prison sentences in the same corruption case. The ‘first’ son-in-law Muhammad Safdar was arrested in Rawalpindi on Sunday (July 8)  and  Pakistan’s anti-corruption agency – the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) advised the local media not to air or report speeches by members of the Sharif family.

However Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam are no strangers to the venality of the Pakistani establishment. The military and the higher judiciary have placed various strictures against the PML (N) but Maryam has declared that her father will reach Lahore on Friday (July 13)  to appeal against the NAB verdict.

Most Pakistani watchers aver that the case against the Sharif family is more political than legal and that in this case, the accused were deemed guilty when the Panama Papers scandal broke in April 2016. Disproportionate assets acquired by the Sharif family in London was the focus of the current NAB case and the selective manner in which the law was applied and the speed with which the police have moved point to the determination of the Pakistani establishment (aka as the deep-state) to keep Nawaz Sharif and his family out of the political calculus in the July 25 elections.

The first jolt to the former PM was delivered in July 2017  when the Pakistan Supreme Court  gravely pronounced: “He is no more eligible to be an honest member of the Parliament, and he ceases to be holding  the office of Prime Minister.” Sharif was forced to step down and this was seen as a judicial coup carried out at the behest of the army (which was furious over a newspaper leak related to the ‘fauj’  supporting terror groups)  and the ousted PM took his battle to the streets, where he enjoys wide support.

This is where personal misfortunes multiplied for Sharif.  His wife’s health deteriorated and the PML (N) leader was unable to mobilise the electorate in preparation for the July 2018 elections. In the interim the establishment in Pakistan appears to have identified former cricketer turned politician  Imran Khan as the new poster boy for democracy and it is expected that his party will prevail in the elections for the 272 general seats in the National Assembly.

The chequered trajectory of Nawaz Sharif (NS) has many ironies embedded in it. A benefactor of the patronage of the ‘fauj’, the young NS was spotted by Rawalpindi handlers in the early 1980s during the  General Zia ul-Haqera (1976–88)  and was groomed for high office. Sharif, at age 36, became the youngest Chief Minister of the powerful Punjab province in 1985 and within five years he was sworn in as Prime Minister in November 1990. NS had become adept at working the 3-A power grid of Pakistan at the time (Army-America-Allah) and was able to endear himself to all the relevant constituencies.

This was a period when the former USSR had withdrawn from Afghanistan and the triumphant Mujahideen – with the Koran in one hand and the Kalashnikov in the other – became the symbol of the beginning of the end of the Cold War. NS evolved an opportunistic relationship with the deep-state that included the army, the clergy and the militant/terror groups that were slowly increasing their foot-print in Pakistan. Concurrently the personal wealth of the Sharif family increased visibly.

In keeping with the roller-coaster politics of Pakistan, NS was unable to complete his term as PM and in July 1993 he was unseated and followed by Benazir Bhutto. She in turn was shown the door in early 1997 and NS was back as PM for a second term in February 1997 with a two thirds majority in parliament. This was a heady mix of power and certitude that the 48-year-old PM could govern Pakistan in the manner that he chose and that all the other institutions would fall into place. The certitude that had morphed into arrogance was misplaced.

In May 1998, Pakistan followed India and declared itself a nuclear weapon power and while no Pakistan PM has had any direct control over the nuclear arsenal of the country NS was on a roll. In October 1998, NS made a fatal error  in forcing the resignation of then Army Chief General Jahangir Karamat who had made some prudent suggestions about the management of Pakistan’s complex national security by a “team of civil-military experts.”

Error became fatal blunder when NS appointed General Pervez Musharraf as the Army Chief. A year later in October 1999, the second term of PM Sharif came to an inglorious end and he was in prison for treason and more.

Expelled to Saudi Arabia, the resilient NS bounced back within a decade and was sworn in as PM for a third time in June 2013. Alas, this time also he was unable to complete his term and the courts forced him to step down in July last. 

Will Friday, July 13 and the return to Lahore trigger a sympathy wave and mark the rise of the Nawaz Sharifphoenix – again, or is this the final fall?

The author is Director, Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi. Views are personal.