Rethinking Pakistan policy

The new low that India-Pakistan relations has hit would be amusing were it not for the fact that hostile activities of the two nuclear powers endanger lives, peace, security and stability in the region. It is a life-and-death matter for those in the cross-border firing zone where periodicity of shelling and fatalities are rising.

Ringing someone’s doorbell at 3 am and disappearing is a juvenile prank. Yet this is what India’s Deputy High Commissioner was subject to; and, according to reports from Pakistan, this was duly reciprocated. Such tit-for-tat is so petty that it is hardly adult, leave alone diplomatic. Another petty grievance is denial of club membership – by Pakistan to India’s High Commissioner, which is also duly reciprocated with New Delhi saying that Delhi’s clubs are private; and, government has no say in membership. The third type of harassment cited, again by both sides, is smart-phone video of the diplomats’ children being shot with a view to intimidate and create fear. While Pakistani diplomats in New Delhi complained of their cars being obstructed on public roads, the Indian mission’s upcoming residential complex had its electricity and water cut off.

Both sides are keeping up a litany of rude harassment and intimidation. These methods and tactics belong to the last century. The only diplomatic aspect of these crude tricks appears to be the letters of protest exchanged between India and Pakistan.

Such diplomacy is most unbecoming of a regional power which sees itself as a superpower in the near future. Besides fouling the air, these have had other consequences: Pakistan’s “recall” of its High Commissioner for “consultations”; Islamabad keeping out of the WTO meeting in New Delhi; India’s refusal of visas to Pakistani pilgrims; and, refusal of permission to Indians for going to Katas Raj temple in Pakistan.

These developments underscore that India-Pakistan relations are their worst in the last 15 years; and, have come a long way down from the ceasefire agreement of 2003, which collapsed in January 2013. Even during the Kargil War and Operation Parakram, there was no personalised hostility as is witnessed now.

In the five years since the ceasefire broke down and violations became the norm, many soldiers and civilians have been killed; and, Pakistani brutalities, such as beheading soldiers and mutilating their bodies have made difficult any talk of resuming dialogue. Interference in Jammu and Kashmir, terrorist infiltration and Pakistan’s persistence with its policy of dealing “a thousand cuts” have only served to harden India’s response.

The NDA under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has, more or less, continued with the foreign policy of the UPA government led by Manmohan Singh. There have been no big departures. Any changes are more in emphasis and tone, such as Modi sarkar adopting a demonstrably more “muscular” posture against Pakistan and China. And, the muscularity has not yielded results.

To the contrary, it has shown that the Modi sarkar, like its predecessor, has no roadmap for dealing with Pakistan. In the case of the UPA, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was keen to carry forward the process initiated by the Vajpayee-Musharraf meeting but was thwarted from doing so by the Congress party. Prospects of India-Pakistan relations improving were always better under non-Congress governments and among these, the Vajpayee-led NDA scored the most dramatic progress in spite of the terrorist attacks during his time. Vajpayee’s initiatives enjoyed support across the political spectrum and the Congress party had no choice but to endorse his moves.

Modi could have opted for the map that Manmohan Singh was frustrated from following. However, he opted for muscularity and surgical strikes combined with attempts to isolate Pakistan and tag it as a terrorist state. In joint statements with almost every country that India engaged, in multilateral forums such as BRICS and big ticket exercises such as the India-ASEAN Summit, there are implied references to Pakistan and terrorism.

At the end of it all, there is no tangible result. None of these countries have walked the talk. Pakistan is not cowed down. It is far from isolated, despite New Delhi’s global campaign. Surgical strikes have invited retaliation and more soldiers and civilians have died. People-to-people contacts are being actively obstructed. New Delhi has not been able to make the Pakistani government or military see the futility of its present course. In short, the government has no framework or strategy for relations with Pakistan.

Modi has succeeded in making Pakistan a domestic issue but failed to achieve any success in pursuing it as a foreign policy priority. This is something that the Congress party would welcome, especially because India-Pakistan ties as they stand are a historical legacy of that party; and, having done little to mend relations during its long years in office, it would not like to see ties normalised.

In the matter of a policy towards Pakistan, the Congress party is no less bankrupt as the foreign policy resolution at its 84th plenary bears this out. The resolution states that Pakistan continues to be a challenge; that the BJP government has no roadmap and its Pakistan policy has been a disaster; that review of the policy is overdue; and, a successful policy can only be based on a national consensus.

Beyond stating the obvious, the Congress, much like the BJP has nothing to offer on what can make for a breakthrough in India-Pakistan relations.  It is not the failure of any one party, but the political class as a whole.

The author is an independent political and foreign affairs commentator. Views are personal