Oil’s not well: Saudi support crucial for Modi’s achhe din

The glowing tributes paid to Saudi King Abdullah were for a reason: Saudi Arabia is important for the global economy. The kingdom’s oil and oil production and prices are, unlike democratic values, crucial to the world’s economic health. This lays bare that “world leaders”, for all their Charlie Hebdo bravado, have feet of clay; and, that democracy, modernity, equality, human rights et al are irrelevant when it affects the business of governments. 

Hardly surprising then that President Barack Obama cut short the “dance of democracy” with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and headed to Saudi Arabia to condole; and pay court to the new King Salman and Crown Prince Muqrin. If Modi felt let down by the leader of the world’s “only indispensable democracy” abandoning him midway through the dance, he could not afford to show it.

India, too, needs to keep on the right side of the House of Saud given the importance of oil and its low prices for Modi Sarkar, especially to deliver on its promise of achhe din. Although the Modi government is sustained by Hindutva and its hostility to Islam, New Delhi was quick to declare one-day state mourning for Abdullah – to underscore that he was a "great friend" of India (which he had once called his “second home”) and that the India-Saudi Arabia strategic partnership was inked during his reign. 

To be fair to the BJP-led coalition, a government of any other party would have done the same, particularly in view of the 3 million Indian workers in Saudi Arabia. However, if the decision to observe state mourning was the butt of ridicule and scorn, it was because the NDA government was perceived as being somewhat overzealous. (In the minds of many, the BJP and its “political culture” are associated with faux pas such as greeting Christians “Happy Good Friday” and Muslims “Happy Muharram”).

In Islamic culture, there is no tradition of overt, public “mourning” in the ceremonial sense as observed in India. Even a king is buried in an unmarked grave, alongside others. In death, commoner and royalty, rich and poor, are all equal. Therefore, it may be asked, whether it is appropriate to declare mourning and fly the tricolour at half-mast for the King of Saudi Arabia, where ultra-conservative Wahhabism is the dominant faith. Besides, when Abdullah visited India in 2006, he declined to “pay homage” at Rajghat because homage to the dead is considered anathema in Wahhabism.

Such responses, as a mark of respect by the Indian state, point to the diplomatic challenges inherent in dealing with Saudi Arabia, especially as an oil-producing kingdom. Oil production and prices are key economic determinants.

The recent, precipitous fall in oil prices -- from over $110 to below $50 a barrel -- has come as a boon to the Indian economy. From the time the fall began, Saudi Arabia has refused to cut back on production and check the slide in prices despite pressure from certain countries such as the US and Venezuela.

Oil and its prices apart, Saudi Arabia is inimical to Iran and opposed to US-Iran détente; and, it has close ties with Pakistan, which is involved in security for the monarchy. Saudi Arabia had provided refuge to General Pervez Musharraf and Nawaz Sharif when they had to flee the country; and, subsequently, also mediated their return. With King Salman not being in the best of health and Crown Prince Muqrin being close to Pakistan, India’s worries are not limited to oil or Iran. Much more than achhe din is at stake here for Prime Minister Modi.  

The author is an independent political and foreign affairs commentator