India’s multi-polar games

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s keynote address at the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore at the beginning of this month is still being dissected, analysed and commented upon for its content. Since it had come on the back of two ‘informal’ summits that the Indian PM held with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, many analysts looked for signs that suggested India was charting its own course after giving an impression early on in Modi’s tenure that it was firmly placing itself in the US orbit in a bid to contain a rising China. And sure enough, he had not disappointed the vast gathering of defence ministers, strategic thinkers and the world media assembled in Singapore.

Almost everyone had expected a blueprint for the future of Indo-Pacific region from the Indian Prime Minister and that’s exactly what he did in the 35-minute keynote address to the prestigious conference. The speech was vast in its scope, vision and philosophy, rooted as it was in India’s civilisational heritage. He advocated a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific — that vast expanse stretching from the east coast of Africa to Western Pacific — based on rules and norms. In a subtle message to China, Modi had said: “We believe that our common prosperity and security require us to evolve, through dialogue, a common rules-based order for the region. And it must equally apply to all individually as well as to the global commons. Such an order must believe in sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as equality of all nations, irrespective of size and strength. These rules and norms should be based on the consent of all, not on the power of the few.”

At the same time, the Indian Prime Minister had referred to both his summits with President Xi and President Putin and underlined India’s multi-polar approach. Clearly laying out India’s vision for an open and inclusive Indo-Pacific, Modi’s speech had emphasised the necessity to work together for the prosperity and well-being of the people in the region and stressed the need for multilateralism and regionalism, principles that India is vigorously pursuing in its foreign policy in recent years.

Ever the master of time and place, Modi, time and again, has stressed on the centrality of South-east Asia or, to be more precise, the ASEAN nations in the Indo-Pacific framework. “The 10 countries of South East Asia connect the two great oceans in both the geographical and civilisational sense. Inclusiveness, openness and ASEAN centrality and unity, therefore, lie at the heart of the new Indo-Pacific. India does not see the Indo-Pacific region as a strategy or as a club of limited members,” he had reminded the audience mainly drawn from the strategic community.

Modi, in fact, held up ASEAN as a fine example of diverse nations, rising above rivalries and differences for common good. “I see ASEAN as an example and inspiration,” he said. In a clear reference to China, Modi said: “Differences should not become disputes,” even as he held out hope when he declared: “The world has a better future when India and China work together and are sensitive to each other’s interests”. He reminded the world that “No other relationship of India has as many layers as our relations with China. We are the world’s two most populous countries and among the fastest-growing major economies. Our cooperation is expanding. Trade is growing. And, we have displayed maturity and wisdom in managing issues and ensuring a peaceful border.”

Modi’s pointed mention of Russia at a summit where Moscow has very little salience might have surprised many, but by acknowledging that “President Putin and I shared our views on the need for a strong multi-polar world order for dealing with the challenges of our times,” PM Modi was sending a message to the Trump administration that it should not take India for granted. Of late, the India-US relationship has cooled a bit despite the extraordinary range of expanded cooperation between the two.

The rise of China and the overall uncertainty across the globe will keep Indian policymakers on their toes. The policy, as envisaged by PM Modi, will be to reach out to nations, big and small, to avert any major international crisis. Asia, with its fragile strategic environment (India-Pakistan, the Korean Peninsula, various conflicts in West Asia, the Afghanistan conundrum), needs full diplomatic attention of the world’s leading powers. Modi’s speech at Shangri La was a timely reminder of this necessity.

US Secretary of Defense James Mattis had highlighted India’s importance in the American strategy for the Indo-Pacific. “In South Asia, we are strengthening our partnerships, particularly with India. Prime Minister Modi’s remarks underscored India’s role as a leader and responsible steward in the Indo-Pacific region. “The US values the role India can play in regional and global security, and we view the US-India relationship as a natural partnership between the world’s two largest democracies, based on a convergence of strategic interests, shared values, and respect for a rule-based international order,” he had said.

Mattis, however, had taken a tough line against China. “I think there are consequences to China ignoring the international community. We firmly believe in the non-coercive aspects of how nations should get along with each other, that they should listen to each other… Nothing wrong with competition, nothing wrong with having strong positions, but when it comes down to introducing what they have done in the South China Sea, there are consequences,” Mattis had remarked in response to a comment that the Chinese had done what they had to do in the South China Sea and there is nothing the world can do about it.

The writer is a strategic affairs analyst, author and founder of BhartShakti.in, a specialised defence website. Views are personal.