GenY will shape 2019 polls

First-time voters between the ages of 18 and 23 can swing the 2019 Lok Sabha election. A 23-year-old in 2019, born in or after April 1996, would not have been eligible to vote in the April-May 2014 Lok Sabha election. He or she will, however, be eligible to do so in the April-May 2019 general election, along with an estimated 100 million other 18-23 year-olds. The youngest in this bracket, born in or before April 2001, will be 18 years old when the 2019 Lok Sabha poll is held. These 100 million new voters could shape the general election given that they will comprise around 11 per cent of the total electorate estimated at 900 million Indians.

This could be tricky for both the national parties, BJP and Congress, as well as for regional parties. Globally, young people are anti-establishment. They lean Left, are liberal and iconoclastic. India though is different from the West where individualism trumps tradition and family. In India, the young tend to be less radical than their global counterparts. Family and religion matter far more. Obedience at home, rather than defiance, learning by rote in college rather than questioning teachers, belief in faith rather than agnosticism define Indian youth.

Rural youth are even more tradition-bound than their urban counterparts. Religion, caste and gender play an important part in their lives and in their voting preference. In a close general election, young first-time voters will form a key target for all political parties. According to the Election Commission of India (ECI), as of February 2018, over 40 million first-time voters had registered themselves in the 18-20 age group. When figures are updated for those in the 21-23 age group, that number will obviously swell. By early 2019, the full universe of 18-23 year-olds will be eligible to vote for the first time. Not all will register with the ECI, but going by the number who already have, 80-90 million first-time voters are likely to be registered by April 2019.

Young urban people consume social media in a big way — Facebook, WhatsApp, Twitter and Instagram. Online news, too, is a staple. The rural young increasingly use social media and online websites to get their news. Print and television remain important, but real time news on the internet shapes opinions fastest. The BJP had a headstart with its IT cell. The Congress has now caught up. But Congress’ challenge is to negate the impression that it is corrupt, dynastic and nepotistic. 

Since 2013, Congress has shrunk from 206 Lok Sabha MPs to 48. In 2013, it governed 14 states. Today, it governs just four. The BJP in 2013 was in power in nine states. Today, it governs 20 states. But that shouldn’t induce complacency. In May 2018, Congress could well retain Karnataka and in December 2018 regain Rajasthan from the BJP. Madhya Pradesh, too, is in play. Thus, for both state assembly and parliamentary elections, India’s first-time voters could tip the balance.

What are the issues that concern young voters? The most important is jobs, especially for those in the 21-23 age bracket. For women, gender equality and safety is a key concern. Caste and community matter too. There is an undercurrent of resentment at SC/ST quotas that restrict both educational and job opportunities. Rising prices is another hot-button issue. With parents nearing retirement, youngsters in the low and middle-income groups are deeply concerned about the cost of living. With jobs scarce and wage increases muted, the state of the economy is a real electoral issue.

First-time voters in India are a curious mix of idealism and pragmatism. They accept the concept of arranged marriages and filial obedience, but seek politicians with a modern mindset. They dislike politicians who divide people on the basis of religion or caste, but paradoxically are themselves conscious of their own caste and religion. Few, especially in rural India, want to marry outside their community or caste. India’s young may be idealists, but a strong streak of tradition runs through them.

In a quasi-presidential contest between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi, first-time voters would be expected to be attracted to Rahul’s relative youth. That wasn’t the case though in 2014 when a Modi wave swept Rahul’s party into virtual oblivion. Modi was an early adapter of social media and online messaging. Rahul has now beefed up his online presence, but the odium of dynasty and privilege remains.

First-time voters value integrity and merit in politicians. They frown on divisiveness and negativity. Performance, not lineage, matters. A good candidate can swing votes for a party. For the BJP, polarisation may work with older voters. The young care more about jobs, prices and performance. Modi is still revered as a doer. For Rahul, the slope is steeper. He has to live down ten years of UPA-led mis-governance and a reputation for nepotism that jars on the young. For regional parties that use caste and community to win votes, there, too, will come a point of diminishing returns. The old may still be swayed by divisiveness. The young may not. They hold the balance of the 2019 general election.

The writer is the author of The New Clash of Civilizations: How The Contest Between America, China, India and Islam Will Shape Our Century. Views are personal.