Donald Trump's Afghanistan policy: Should India be worried?

US President Donald Trump on Monday highlighted his administration's policy in Afghanistan and South Asia. Trump, in his own words, has not listened to his instincts and has gone by the suggestions and counsel of his senior staffers and army generals. The speech, too, on similar lines followed a tight script. While it had unmistakable Trump signature, with typical boast and use of high-level rhetoric, it was relatively restrained with a sobered assessment of what is actually developing on ground.

Emphasis on 'wins' without coherent roadmap: 

Donald Trump showing his customary flair said that US troops will definitely win in Afghanistan. However he desisted from referring to specifics like how many soldiers they will increase or the exact timeframe when the US will withdraw troops from the country. However, Trump couched this by saying, " We will not talk about numbers of troops or our plans for further military activities. Conditions on the ground, not arbitrary timetables, will guide our strategy from now on. America's enemies must never know our plans or believe they can wait us out. I will not say when we are going to attack, but attack we will.".

No longer into 'nation building'

To further promote the idea that for Trump, America's interest is the only concern, the US President said that they will no longer indulge in nation building. This is a direct message to his base that US is no longer interested in pursuing lofty goals, rather it is looking to safeguard the life and assets of USA. 

Message to Taliban:

Trump's speech was unusually muted about Taliban. Nearly half way through the speech, the first mention of Taliban came and there was also a call for political settlement including them, although it was carefully worded to avoid any specific promise

Scathing attack on Pakistan: 

Trump hasn't shied away from sharing his 'candid' view about Pakistan in the past and this speech was no different. He said that a part of his new strategy to solve the Afghanistan problem will be to ensure that Pakistan does not provide 'safe havens for terrorist organisations, the Taliban, and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond" . As an implicit threat, Trump said that, " It has much to lose by continuing to harbour criminals and terrorists."  

The US President reminded Pakistan that they are paying them ' billions and billions of dollars at the same time they are housing the very terrorists that we are fighting". In short Trump made it clear that Pakistan need to keep it's own part of the bargain if it wants to continue receiving military aid

Not de-hyphenating India and Pakistan: 

Trump's repeated mention of South Asia and that of India and Pakistan in the same vein may irk some feather in New Delhi. For a long time, US has adopted the strategy of counter-balancing the two traditional foes, India and Pakistan. But slowly coming out of the shadow of Cold War, India has strengthened relationship with successive US administrations and has tried to enforce the notion that it should be dealt separately and not part of a South Asia doctrine. India's firm commitment to peace and stability, should have been cause enough to de-link it from seeing from a narrow prism. President Obama's solo trip to India during Republic Day in 2015 was seen as a big step towards it. But in Trump's speech, he repeatedly bracketed India and Pakistan and even warned that the two nuclear-armed countries may spiral into conflict. 

Transactional nature of relationship:

This was quintessential Trump. The man who boasts of cutting the 'beat deals' tried to also do it in his policy speech. Like there was carrot and stick for Pakistan, the same was implied in a milder language for India. He said that, " India makes billions of dollars in trade with the United States, and we want them to help us more with Afghanistan, especially in the area of economic assistance and development." 

Now, India is already the fifth largest aid provider to the war ravaged country, and is currently providing support in building of infrastructure. The nature of help US wants India to chip in with will only be known in the future. But what is crucial is that Trump is adding a possible caveat to trade relations, something which may keep New Delhi a bit uneasy. Yet, it is also likely to go down well with Pakistan, who has for a long time seen India's relationship with Afghanistan with a degree of trepidation. 

All in all, the speech was more of an old doctrine packaged as new. It was lot of bluster about winning without any overarching new plan. Probably it is difficult to make any massive pivot at a time, when the country is already war-ravaged for 17 years. This is a botched up legacy Trump has inherited and he is trying a clean-up job. But like a skilled businessman, he has put other tangibles in the equation to this sticky issue. How far it goes in solving the Afghan tangle will only be known in the future.