Congress unravels

The political avalanche triggered by the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) victory in Delhi, may have repercussions beyond the national capital, a microcosm of India. The fact that the two-year-old modest party reduced a 130-year-old Congress giant to a cipher and humbled a strong-cadre based BJP and punctured brand Modi, amply demonstrate the extent of voter disillusionment with both the national parties. 

Two factors — good performance of AAP government in Delhi and underperformance of the BJP government at the Centre — will decide whether AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal can catapult himself as a strong countervail to Modi and the Gandhi family dynasty before the next parliamentary elections in 2019.

The AAP story, no doubt, should worry both the mainstream players. It is, however, the Congress which is in danger of slow extermination in the event of a pan-India AAP upsurge. Kejriwal’s party has become an attractive political podium for Muslims who have been overwhelmingly backing the Congress in bipolar states to checkmate the BJP. 

In multipolar states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha and West Bengal, the minority community have since resorted to tactical voting, ie, backing the strongest party that can defeat the BJP. The tactical voting by the Muslim community benefited the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in UP, Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Janata Dal (United) in Bihar and the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, at the cost of Congress. In the newly carved Telangana state and Andhra the Congress drew a blank in the Lok Sabha polls partly because the minorities preferred Telangana Rashtra Samithi and YSR Congress respectively in these states. 

The Grand Old Party has now been reduced to a fringe player in these states together accounting for a total of 284 seats; of these, the Congress won just 13 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls given that the first choice of the minority community was a regional party vis-a-vis a weak Congress party.

The Congress has now become a victim of tactical voting in Delhi too. Roughly 70% of Muslim votes shifted to AAP in the election last week as the minority electorate believed that only the AAP could stop the saffron juggernaut. What is even more galling for the Congress is that 15% of its votes (including Dalits and urban poor) shifted to AAP while the BJP lost only 1% of its voteshare in the assembly elections held between 2013 and 2015. 

And if the AAP emerges a viable national alternative and the Congress shows no sign of revival, the minorities in states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala can switch loyalties to AAP. That’s a frightening scenario that can sound the death knell for Congress.

Being a Left-of-Centre party committed to secularism, the AAP is in a position to usurp the original rainbow social coalition crafted by Indira Gandhi. If the AAP government performs well in Delhi and decides to go national many disgruntled but liberal, secular Congress leaders who cannot defect to BJP, may find a refuge in AAP.   

As against the BJP, which is a ruling party and has time to go in for course correction, the Congress is in a mess. It is being wiped out in state after state. If the Gandhi dynasty was an asset in a better political climate, now they are becoming a liability. Hapless Congressmen are faced with the dichotomy of a faction-ridden party whose DNA is dynasty, albeit fading, and no other mass leader of pan-India stature to take command.       

Each time the party loses an election, onlookers witness the pathetic sight of Congressmen raising slogans  demanding Priyanka Gandhi’s elevation to the centre stage as if that is the panacea for all the ills in the GoP. For the last two years reams have been written about the failing leadership of Rahul Gandhi, extinction of strong state leaders, internecine squabbles in various PCCs, party machinery being moribund in crucial heartland states but neither Sonia Gandhi nor Rahul has shown any great urgency. 

A smug party was dismissive of the emergence of Narendra Modi as BJP’s prime ministerial candidate till January 2014 -- when it woke up it was too late. It also committed another cardinal sin underestimating AAP. However, after the AAP emerged second largest party in Delhi assembly last year securing 28 seats against the eight of the Congress, a chastened Rahul Gandhi had given sound  bytes to television journalists saying that “we will learn from the AAP” to go in for course correction. But nothing of the sort was done.

That the party had no will to fight the Delhi election seriously was evident from the fact that it imported senior leader PC Chacko, from Kerala, as its campaign manager. A leader who had no connect with the local party leaders and activists.

Former Union minister Ajay Maken who was the unofficial chief ministerial candidate and PCC chief Arvinder Singh Lovely did not vibe well after the latter was denied a ticket to contest the polls. Former Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit confined her campaign to limited constituencies while her son and former east Delhi MP Sandip Dikshit, was conspicuous by his absence from the fray. Maken and the Dikshits have been busy fighting their own little turf wars last many years..

Even after severe drubbing in the Lok Sabha polls there is no let up on ego hassles. Recent days witnessed turf wars between P Chidambaram, his son Kartik and Tamil Nadu PCC chief EVKS Elangovan and Punjab PCC president Partap Singh Bajwa and former CM Capt Amarinder Singh. In Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, West Bengal, Uttrakhand and Chhatisgarh PCCs are also plagued by factional squabbles. 

If Modi benefited from the smugness of the Congress earlier, it is now the turn of Kejriwal. After smelling blood in Delhi, the AAP chief is unlikely to confine himself to the national capital. The AAP had won four Lok Sabha seats from Punjab in the 2014 polls. A section of AAP leaders have already indicated the possibility of the party contesting elections in Punjab, West Bengal and Maharashtra. To start with, AAP may test the waters in some 100-odd parliamentary seats spread across urban areas. The only hope for the Congress is for Modi and Kejriwal to trip and squander the public goodwill that they now enjoy. 

The writer is a political commentator