China must win over Taiwan through talks, not coercion

Ever since Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen assumed power in 2016, her government has taken several steps to strengthen Taiwan’s identity as an independent state, with the latest development being the hosting of Alex Wong, US Deputy Assistant Secretary, at the department’s Bureau of East of Asian and Pacific Affairs. The visit in turn provoked Beijing, with Chinese President Xi Jinping warning that efforts to widen division with Taiwan would be punished by history. He also said that China had the capabilities to stop any attempt to formalise the democratically ruled island’s independence.

The thread of the conflict between China and Taiwan goes back to 1949 when losing the Civil War to the communists, Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist KMT fled to Taiwan. While the People’s Republic of China (PRC) says that Taiwan is an undisputed part of it, referring to an understanding between representatives of the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang Party in 1992, Taiwan asserts its independent status as a state. In fact, till 1971 Republic of China (ROC) was a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

In the recent times, Taiwan’s efforts to emerge out of One China policy have gained momentum with the election of DPP Tsai Ing-Wen as Taiwanese President. It is in this context that Tsai did not mention the 1992 Consensus, ragging the Chinese establishment. Consequently, China put pressure on the International Civil Aviation Organisation to not initiate Taiwan as a guest of the ICAO assembly in September 2016. The telephonic conversation between President Donald Trump and Tsai Ing-Wen and his initial argument that the US could revisit its stand on ‘One China’ policy added fuel to the increasing tension between Taipei and Beijing.

Due to Chinese pressure, Nigerian foreign minister Geoffery Onyeanma announced that Taiwan would no longer have diplomatic representation in Nigeria in January 2017. In June the same year, Panama cut off diplomatic ties with Taiwan under the influence of Beijing. In January this year it has opened a new air route over the narrow Taiwan Strait separating China and Taiwan.

This will have huge security implications for Taipei because Chinese air force can also use this air route in future.

Of course, over the years, China has been trying to bring Taiwan under its control, what has recently augmented Beijing’s efforts in this direction is the fact that apart from not having favourable response from President Tsai on the 1992 Consensus, China is also concerned about the losing ground of the KMT party in Taiwan, which is known for its closeness to mainland China. Added to this is the increasing discontent about China among the people of Taiwan. This can be gauged from the fact that in a recent poll 75 of the Taiwanese respondents see China and Taiwan as two different states. Viewing mainland China as a perverted form of Chinese culture, Taiwanese also consider their culture and tradition as pure Chinese and feel proud of their democratic institutions, freedom of press and others liberal values. Moreover, China’s coercive actions and its lack of respect for Taiwan, among others, have severely impacted the ties between Taiwan and China. 

Another reason for China’s provocative step against Taiwan is the deepening engagement between Taipei and Washington. Despite reiterating its commitment to ‘One China’ policy, Trump has signed into law the National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2018, which mentions strengthening the defence partnership between the US and Taiwan as continuing US legal commitments. The NDAA also states that the US should invite Taiwan to participate in military exercises and to consider ‘reestablishing port of call exchanges between the navies of the two sides. In March, President Trump signing the Taiwan Travel Act has further elevated the tension between China and Taiwan to a new level. 

However, unlike China, the Tsai government has shown its maturity in responding to Xi’s provocative moves, keeping the door for talks open with Beijing. At the same time, while at the domestic level, her government has formulated eight strategies seeking to keep talent in Taiwan, to maintain Taiwan’s advantage in the global supply chain, to deepen its capital market and to strengthen its cultural and film industries, at the foreign policy front, it has geared into strengthening its ties with other countries. Of course, improving ties with India has also become a major priority of the Tsai government under ‘southbound policy’. While the trade volume between the two sides has reached to $6 billion in 2017, the two sides have also signed MoU on the Promotion of Industry Collaboration to boost the economic ties. New Delhi and Taipei also share the shared aim of ensuring freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, increasing threat from China and others. Surely, the Tsang government has so far been very successful in executing its two-pronged strategy in dealing with China and it should be hoped that China would soon realise it is only through talks than by provocation that China could effectively engage with Taiwan and its people.

The author is a Visiting Fellow, National Chengchi University, and Research Fellow, Chennai Centre for China Studies. Views are personal.