Can Nitish Kumar do a Kejriwal to BJP in Bihar ?

Last month, Union home minister and senior BJP leader Rajnath Singh told journalists that “BJP will win the elections (Bihar) on the basis of the global image of our Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The fight in Bihar will not be in the name of caste or religion,” he affirmed. The spectacular victory of BJP and allies in the Bihar elections (winning 31 out of the 40 Lok Sabha seats) last year had prompted some analysts to conclude that the state notorious for caste politics had been liberated from the scourge by “vikas purush” Narendra Modi.

The forecast is a bit premature and only the outcome of the upcoming elections can indicate whether that assumption holds water. The fact that both, the BJP and Mandalites are trying to forge a coalition of caste parties to maximise their electoral gains is reflective of the ground realities, that is, caste politics in Bihar is alive and kicking.

In the parliamentary elections last year the BJP and allies polled 39.36 per cent votes, that means slightly more than 60 per cent did not vote for the NDA. JDU-RJD alone shared 36.50 per cent, Congress 8.56 per cent, NCP, CPI and CPM together polled roughly three per cent. This equation has since undergone some changes with  rebel-turned former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi pulling out of JDU and launching his own party and RJD rebel Pappu Yadav floating his own outfit. The BJP has co-opted both expanding its OBC and Dalit base. Manjhi can claim about 10 per cent of Mahadalit votes and the don-turned politician Pappu could bring some Yadav votes. Nitish Kumar bolstered his caste alliance by bringing the RJD into his fold. The JDU-RJD-Congress and NCP vote share was 46.28 per cent last year. As such arithmetically, both the fronts are now evenly poised ahead of the elections.

RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav has already termed the campaign as “Mandal vs Kamandal”, Mandal being a metaphor for backward caste upsurge against the forwards, saying that the Mandal will break the Kamandal. To buttress BJP’s alleged upper caste bias, Lalu has been propagating that the central government is deliberately withholding the latest caste census fearing OBC backlash on the eve of the polls.

Modi is expected to reshuffle his council of ministers after the monsoon session and induct a few new caste faces from Bihar to send out the right message before the polls. The BJP is crafting a multi-pronged strategy of playing caste politics sugar-coated with development. It is also trying to make the election a personality clash, pitting one backward against the other showcasing Modi as the first OBC Prime Minister ahead of his Bihar visit on July 25, deliberately overlooking the fact that Charan Singh and Deve Gowda were also OBC PMs.

Can Nitish Kumar can do an Arvind Kejriwal to Modi-Amit Shah duo in Bihar? Though polls are three months away battle lines have already been drawn. As the election is expected to witness a clash of personalities — a Modi vs Nitish duel — it provides an opportunity to both to settle their old personal scores. A year ago, Kumar, considered a pro-LK Advani leader, had quit the NDA alliance protesting the projection of Modi as PM candidate.

Not just Modi, the election is equally crucial for BJP president and Modi’s Man Friday Amit Shah and chief poll strategist, whose autocratic style of functioning is being resented by many in the party. A defeat in Bihar, after Delhi, could encourage Shah’s in-house detractors to gang up against him. And if Bihar is lost, Uttar Pradesh sending 80 MPs to Lok Sabha, may also eclipse from the saffron map in 2017. A such, the Bihar election outcome will have serious repercussions on the future politics of Modi and Nitish.

Apart from personalities, caste and communal polarisation, selection of candidates and hi-tech campaign would also significantly impact the poll outcome. Undoubtedly, the BJP has superior election machinery and resources at its command.

Nitish is no pushover either. After stitching up an alliance with RJD, Congress and NCP, Kumar is now mixing his Spartan, socialist type door-to-door interaction with a hi-tech campaign to match BJP.

In a surprise move, he recently roped in Prashant Kishor, who as head of Citizens for Accountable Governance (CAG) was Modi’s chief campaign strategist  for the 2014 general elections. Modi’s successful “chai pe charcha” and rallies with 3D holograms , which became a big hit, were Kishor’s innovation. He is rumoured to have fallen out with Amit Shah since. The group, in its new avatar IPAC (India Political Action Committee), is expected to replicate the hi-tech campaign for JDU with some modifications.

It remains to be seen how the corruption plank is going to play out. The BJP has been focussing on corruption charges against Lalu and some Congress Chief Ministers, but courtesy scams such as IPL, Vyapam, Chikki (Maharashtra) and PDS in Chhattisgarh, the saffron camp is also in the dock now.

BJP is also in a dilemma over announcing a CM candidate. While Congress has served a fait accompli on Lalu nominating Nitish as the CM candidate, the BJP is grappling with so many contenders from different caste groups within the NDA.

Compounding the complicated caste matrix, senior BJP leader Shatrughan Sinha recently claimed that LJP’s (BJP ally) Ram Vilas Paswan is fit to be the CM. Pappu Yadav is batting for Jitan Ram Manjhi while Koeri caste leader Upendra Kushwaha, also part of the NDA, is being backed by his caste men for the top job. BJP leader and Union minister Radha Mohan Singh is in favour of Sushil Modi as CM.

On the other hand, lack of unity in the secular camp with Left front contesting separately and disconnect between Nitish, Lalu and Rahul Gandhi could be advantageous to the BJP. There are also apprehensions that proper vote transfer may not take place between JDU, RJD and Congress given the mutually antagonistic positions these parties took till recently.

The writer is a political commentator