Bypoll jinx: Examining the road ahead for the BJP till 2019

As expected, the BJP has not done well in the recently concluded bypolls. Out of the 4 Lok Sabha and 11 Assembly seats whose results were declared on Thursday, the ruling party won only one each, Palghar in Maharashtra and Tharali in Uttarakhand. In fact, since it came to power at the centre in 2014, the BJP has only won in 5 out of 27 Lok Sabha. During this year alone, the party vacated 6 out of the 8 Lok Sabha seats that it held.

It lost Ajmer and Alwar in Rajasthan to the Congress. In Uluberia, West Bengal, the BJP failed to overthrow the Trinamool Congress candidate. More humiliating were defeats UP, in Gorakhpur, Yogi Adityanath’s home constituency, and Phulpur, Deputy CM, Keshav Prasad Maurya, home turf. In Bihar, Lalu’s RJD won in Araria. Added to this is Thursday’s loss in Kairana in UP and Bhandara-Gondia in Maharashtra. The result is that in 2018, the BJP has been reduced to 271 (plus two nominated members) from 282 in India’s more powerful lower house. The NDA, of which BJP is the leading party, still has 315 out of 543 seats, comfortably ahead of the half-way mark.

Should the BJP worry? The simple answer is both yes and no. Yes, it should worry because no electoral defeat can be taken lightly. It is time to introspect rather than shift the blame to local infighting or opposition unity. Though the threat of the latter is not yet serious, it cannot be wished away either. 

Opposition unity at the national level may be a non-starter, but at the local level, even a marriage of convenience between two out of three or four political opponents might result in significant vote transfer, thus spelling disaster. As we come closer to 2019, even such occasional jolts to the BJP come as a tremendous moral booster to anti-Modi forces. All the more reason why they cannot be ignored.

But there are also sufficient reasons not to be over-apprehensive, let alone to panic. The fact is that Indian voters behave differently during bypolls as opposed to general elections. Even at the state level, after 2014 the BJP has done consistently better than its rivals whenever states went in for the polls. In the recent Karnataka elections, for example, in which the BJP failed to form a government, their tally went up from 40 to an impressive 104.

Moreover, the prospect of opposition unity at the Centre, however appealing to Modi-detractors seems remote. In the past too, such alliances have been opportunistic and short-lived rather than principled and long-lasting. Indian voters are unlikely to be beguiled by yet another doomed-to-fail experiment. They want, more than anything else, a stable, secure, and able government. It is to this fundamental need that the BJP’s new slogan, saaf niyat, sahi vikas (clean conscience, genuine development) coined ahead of 2019, seems to hit the right buttons.

That is why Amit Shah was right when he reportedly said losing bypolls was a minor blip compared to winning state and general elections. But one of the challenges he faces is to keep his own allies within the  NDA happy. With Chandrababu Naidu of TDP already breaking away, there is every likelihood of further realignments. The Shiv Sena, for example, has be long disgruntled and may well play spoiler.

This brings us the more fundamental question—why the BJP loses bypolls. Is it because the “Modi-effect” does not play out with full force in by-elections? The BJP wins elections by creating a wave. This wave swings large sections of the populace to vote for them. The man who rides, if not creates the wave, is the one and only NaMo.

Modi is the great communicator, able not only to connect to the masses, but also appeal to them in a manner that few have been able to in India’s recent history. True, the BJP has offered cleaner administration and better governance wherever it has ruled, but especially at the centre. But without Modi spearheading their electoral campaign, translating this advantage into votes would prove difficult.

But the BJP must also realise that relying on the Modi magic alone would be foolhardy. Instead, the party must work extra-hard to maintain deep pockets of support, especially in vulnerable constituencies. The fact is that there are many smaller leaders who simply cannot be wished away or dismissed. They can swing the voters away from national causes and entreaties to local considerations of caste and patronage. 

The Modimantra is like to work again because “Brand Modi” is still the BJP’s best bet, but a determined and united opposition, fighting for its very survival may pose a serious challenge to the ruling party.

The author is a poet and professor at JNU. Views expressed are personal.