A world in transition: more of the same

As a new year begins, the world is as messy as it was last year with no signs that any long-term solutions are going to come anytime soon to any of the major challenges confronting the international system. It remains a world where leadership is in deficit and pygmies have the command of major nations. The tragedy is that they think that they are all grand strategists of the highest order and in the process are wreaking great damage to the international environment. 

The US continues to be buffeted by a series of domestic crises. The economy is looking up but social tensions are at an all-time high. Ironically for President Barack Obama, racial tensions are now challenging America’s internal cohesion to an unprecedented extent when compared to recent years. American foreign policy is also being challenged by myriad crises from Pakistan-Afghanistan to the Middle East and a dysfunctional American political system has been unable to rise up to the challenge of providing solutions. The Democrat wipe-out in November 2014 elections has made Obama’s Presidency lame duck though he is trying to assert his authority one last time. It remains to be seen if he will be able to challenge the Republican-dominated political landscape for the next two years even as he continues to become even more redundant with each passing day. A lack of American leadership on global issues will make the world even more turbulent and America’s adversaries from Vladimir Putin to the Islamic State recognise it well. 

Putin’s bravado is no longer enough to reveal the troubling signs that the Russian economy is showing. The World Bank has predicted that Russia's economy would shrink by 0.7 per cent in 2015 and has warned that the contraction would be worse if oil prices were to keep sliding. Russia's economy has had trouble regaining its footing because of sanctions imposed by the West after the annexation of Crimea. The sanctions coincided with a steep drop in the price of oil, which has become the lifeblood of Russia's economy. With inflation climbing, the value of the rouble has fallen by more than 40 per cent. Russia has lashed back by blocking imports from the West, making it much tougher to acquire meats and produce from Europe and North America. Russia's oil wealth has given it large foreign exchange reserves. But it's been forced to spend more than a fifth of them this year to stabilise its banks and companies, and keep its rouble from sliding too much. But this cannot continue forever and that’s the challenge Putin faces as he tries to get an economy, once doing well, back to its bearings.

China’s economy is likely to miss Beijing’s growth target for the first time since the Asian financial crisis at the end of the last century, after official figures showed the country’s seismic manufacturing sector barely grew in December. A housing market slump and attempts to rebalance China’s heavily investment-dependent economy have held back growth this year, and data on Tuesday showed factory output expanding at its slowest rate for 18 months. There is now pressure on the Chinese policymakers to take stronger reform measures which may not be politically palatable. But the rise of China has continued to shake up the strategic landscape in Asia and beyond. The US is struggling to maintain a stable regional framework in the Indo-Pacific with China upping the ante in the South China Sea. China’s tensions have risen with most of its neighbours and Vietnam and the Philippines, in particular, are not taking the challenge from Beijing lying down. It remains to be seen if America’s role as an off-shore balancer will be effective enough to give the regional dynamic a semblance of normalcy.

At a time when the US foreign policy was pivoting to Asia, the Middle East has managed to garner attention with the growing chasm between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Washington’s desire for a rapprochement with Tehran has shaken up the decades-old Middle Eastern balance of power. US-led air strikes against Islamic State militants, fighting between government troops and rebels in Syria, and sectarian violence in Iraq have also accounted for large numbers of deaths in the region.

The air strikes have continued with IS being targeted near the Syrian cities of Raqqa, Kobane and Deir al-Zor and near the Iraqi cities of Fallujah, Mosul and Sinjar. The conflict in Syria seems no closer to being solved, and the opposition to Syrian President Bashar Assad is more fragmented than ever. In fact, the outrageous violence of ISIS has provided a de facto boost to Assad because it has paved the way for the US and its allies to declare war on one of his most nettlesome opposition groups. 

In South Asia, the spectre of terrorism continues to raise its head with Pakistan being forced to confront the costs of its support for terrorism. Taliban gunmen stormed a military-run school in Peshawar, killing 145 people, almost all of them children, in Pakistan's bloodiest ever terror attack.The overwhelming majority of the victims were students at the army public school, which has children and teenagers aged up to 16. But Pakistan continues with its irrational posturing towards India with its firing across the LoC. It is far from clear if the Pakistani military is ready to confront the real challenges facing the nation.

The world is facing multiple challenges and the new year is unlikely to see a resolution of most of the longstanding problems on their own. Even in Europe, the world’s most stable region, concerns are rising about the instability in Greece which will once again challenge the European project and the rise of anti Europe forces. The attack on the French magazine Charlie Hebdo by Islamist militants underscores the social tensions inherent in the European political landscape. In the midst of this chaos, India with a stable government presents an interesting contrast. It remains to be seen if the Modi government will be able to rise to the occasion to lead the world from the front.

The author teaches at King's College, London.