A mission to nowhere, though ISRO claims otherwise

When it comes to space or nuclear power, the jingoism of the Indian middle class, reflected in the euphoria contrived by the media, knows no bounds. India is admired and lionised for joining a “select club” of nations credited with unique science and technology achievements — regardless of whether these pertain to the ability to reduce millions of non-combatant civilians instantly to radioactive dust, or serve to cover up state brutalities against citizens.

The obverse of this euphoria is amnesia. India’s five decade-long strongly-stated opposition to nuclear deterrence is forgotten just when it embraces that very “repugnant” doctrine. Also erased from public memory are the setbacks suffered by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) in developing the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) despite 15 years of trying, and more prominently, in the much-celebrated moon mission launched in 2008.

Mangalyaan hasn’t even left the earth’s gravity-field yet. But the media is drooling over ISRO’s “stride” from the moon to Mars, already declared as “successful”.  So it bears recalling and restating that the “landmark” or “pioneering” Chandrayaan-I moon orbiter mission failed to fulfil its stated goals. It wound up in just 10 months, instead of the planned two years — unlike most orbiters which meet or exceed their duration. Notwithstanding the still-contested significance of the discovery of traces of water vapour, the mission was of little scientific interest and didn’t advance the frontiers of knowledge. It wasn’t about science or even technology. It was merely a spectacle.

There were early problems with Chandrayaan-I’s thermal systems, which caused overheating.

Even more serious problems developed in its navigation system, which crippled the craft’s capacity to determine its orientation in space. Then, its main sensor and computer packed up, and ground control lost contact with Chandrayaan-I, for reasons which ISRO has failed to investigate or explain.

Yet, bitten by the publicity bug, ISRO embarked on the Mars mission when it hadn’t completed the development of a rocket (the GSLV) that could put a heavy satellite into a high-enough orbit.

Instead, ISRO hurriedly used the much less powerful Polar SLV to launch Mangalyaan, a small satellite, into a low-earth orbit. This greatly constricts the mission and lowers its value.

Even if the early glitch following Mangalyaan’s first three orbits around earth is fully fixed, it is successfully flung into inter-planetary space by December 1, and all else goes according to plan, the spacecraft will be in an elliptical orbit (366 km x 80,000 km) so distant from Mars that it can observe very little, not even a fraction of what US or European satellites like the Mars Global Surveyor or Mars Express did. Thanks to the PSLV constraint, Mangalyaan can only carry a small scientific payload weighing just 13 g, compared to the Mars Express’s 116 kg.

This instrumentation paucity severely limits the extent and quality of what Mangalyaan can add to what’s already known about Martian topography or the presence of methane. The US’s Curiosity rover couldn’t find methane even in the parts-per-million range. It would be a surprise if Mangalyaan, a distant orbiter, finds methane.

What Mangalyaan will certainly accomplish is greater India-China space and missile rivalry.

Space programmes have strong military links. ISRO’s SLVs form the first stage of the Agni series of nuclear-capable missiles. ISRO has launched numerous military communications and spy satellites. China is worried by, and will match, India’s space “ambitions”. Both are developing anti-satellite missiles. China tested one in 2007 and India has repeatedly boasted of its own capacities since 2012. ASAT rivalry will prove intensely destabilising.

The author is a writer, columnist, and professor at the Council for Social Development, Delhi