Exit Polls: BJP set to retain Gujarat, wrest Himachal from Congress
The exit poll results show BJP enroute to winning its 19th state.
Exit poll results for Himachal and Gujarat elections are out and if they are accurate, we are looking at a saffron Monday come 18th December. The polls predict BJP to retain power in Gujarat albeit with a smaller margin and to win comfortably in Himachal Pradesh.
Congress leaders have already rejected the poll findings, saying that the surveyors were unable to capture the undercurrent for Congress in Gujarat.
Himachal polled on 9th November and a month later, polling in two phases were held for Gujarat. Today second phase of Gujarat polls were held and final turnout was 68.7%. In Himachal, there was a pretty steep 74% voting. In 1st phase of polling, Gujarat recorded 68% voter turnout.
Currently Himachal is being ruled by Congress and Gujarat by BJP. The Himalayan state has a tendency of flipping in every five years, whereas BJP has been the dominant power in Gujarat for the last 22 years. Will the status quo be broken this time around? It will not, if the exit polls are to be believed.
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Times Now-VMR final prediction is BJP-113 Congress-66. It is virtually a mirror image of the result from 2012, if the poll turns out to be true.
Hardik Patel is hoping for Mahaparivartan.
ABP- CSDS Exit poll predicts a neck to neck fight between Congress and BJP in Himachal. It predicts BJP to win 35-41, and Congress to get 26-32 seats. In terms of vote share, CSDS predicts BJP to get 45% and 42% for Congress.
Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani has reacted to the exit polls. He claims that BJP will be defeated when the actual results come. So far, all the exit polls have indicated clear win for BJP.
Todays' Chanaky's prediction for Gujarat has come. And it predicts BJP to win between 124 to 146. While other agencies have predicted a fall in BJP's vote percentage, Chanakya has differed and is forecasting 49% for the saffron party.
Interestingly they were pretty close in capturing the trend for UP elections earlier this year.
Virtually all the exit polls suggest a pretty clear sweep for BJP in Himachal Pradesh. Out of 68, pollsters predict BJP to win anything between 42 to 55 seats. Congress is being given seats between 13-24. So, it's a complete decimation of Congress if the exit polls are true.
Many of the exit polls predict Congress doing well in Saurasthra and North Gujarat. That may be the best news for the grand old party. If it can sweep these two regions, it may still spring a surprise on 18th December. However, most exit polls believe BJP will win comfortably when the final votes have been counted.
Almost most of the polls have pretty much predicted similar result for Gujarat. Is there a 'herding effect' in play here? We will only know next Monday.
Final voter turnout for second phase has come. It is 68.7%, lesser than 71% in 2012. This should be a worrying news for Congress, because normally fall in turnout indicates lack of strong anti-incumbency in the state.
C Voter predicts 108 seats for BJP in Gujarat and 74 for Congress.
The surveys indicate Congress did manage to put together a decent social base, but it lacked the final punch to dethrone BJP. If BJP does win, much of the credit will go to PM Narendra Modi. The Axis Poll suggests a strong urban-rural divide in voting pattern. BJP despite the effects of GST may be holding on to its urban bastions while Congress remains strong in rural centres, according to Axis survey.
CSDS polls predict a good showing for BJP in Central Gujarat too, which was a traditional Congress fortress. Out of 40 seats, BJP is slated to win 21-27 seats, Congress to get 13-19 seats. They are ahead by 5% vote share in the region. Overall CSDS predicts 117 for BJP and 64 for Congress.
India Today-Axis is predicting 99-113 for BJP and 68-82 for Congress. The poll predicts good showing for Congress in Saurashtra and North Gujarat excluding Ahmedabad. Whereas BJP has done considerably well in Central and South Gujarat according to the poll. The Patel vote has been divided between Congress and BJP, the survey indicates.
Today's Chanakya's prediction is loud and clear. Prem Kumar Dhumal is set to become the CM of Himachal Pradesh again according to their exit poll. It is also in line with other exit polls which have predicted a clear mandate for BJP.
C Voter Exit Poll results for Himachal Pradesh has been released. It predicts an emphatic win for BJP in Himachal.
Out of 68, BJP is expected to win 41, Congress 25 and others 2. In terms of vote share, BJP is getting 47.6% and Congress to win 44% according to C Voter poll.
ABP-CSDS predicts a complete sweep for BJP in North Gujarat. It predicts 32-28 for BJP, 16-22 for Congress.
The saffron party is predicted to get around 7% more votes than Congress according to the CSDS survey.
India Today-Axis Poll predicts 47% for BJP and 42% for Congress. It predicts Congress to win very comfortably in Saurashtra and North Gujarat.
So the big message from most of the exit polls is BJP is likely to win around 110 seats. A little less than 2012, and much lesser than Amit Shah's target of 150. But it would be enough to keep BJP in power in Gujarat for the next 5 years, if the polls are right.
Sahara Samay-CNX survey predicts BJP to win 110-120 seats. Congress to take 65-75 seats.
C-Voter predicts 47.4% for BJP and 43.3% for Congress.
Jan Ki Baat- Republic predicts 115 for BJP and 65 for Congress. It predicts 2 for other parties.
According to Times Now VMR, BJP to get 47% vote and Congress to get 41%. So Congress has managed to cut BJP's lead, but it is not enough for them to form the next government in Gujarat, if the exit poll is correct.
So far exit poll numbers should make BJP leaders happy. Not only they are winning in Himachal according to the polls, they may eke out a close win in Gujarat. Well it may be far cry from Amit Shah's Mission 150, but the saffron party will be more than happy to scrape through considering the factors stacked against them.
Now, the first results from ABP-CSDS exit polls have come. And they predict an absolute sweep for BJP in Saurasthra-Kutch area. Out of 54, BJP expected to win 31-37 seats (49% vote share). Congress is expected to win 16-22 seats (41% vote share). Others may win 0-2 seats.
The Times Now-VMR numbers are provisional and will be updated later. They predict an extremely close contest in Saurashtra, knows as BJP hub. Out of 54 seats, BJP is predicted to win 28.
According to Axis-My India poll, BJP all set to come back to power in Himachal Pradesh. It is set for a two-third majority. It may get 47-55 seats in the 68 member assembly. Congress may only get 13-20 seats if the exit poll turns out to be correct.
The first exit polls for Gujarat has come now.
Times Now VMR predicts a narrow win for BJP. It is projecting 109 seats for BJP, 70 for Congress and 3 for others. It means BJP will be get less seats, compared to 2012. A point needs to be kept in mind, that there is an error of 3% in the poll. So in a close election, if Congress gets 3% more than what has been projected, the final tally may look completely different.
While we will soon be looking at the exit poll results, it needs to be reminded that these polls have been wrong in the past. Many of the exit polls got it completely wrong in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Delhi in the recent times.