War Clouds over South China Sea- Will China attack Taiwan?

The conflict between Taiwan (Republic of China) & mainland China (Peoples Republic of China) is not new. It is almost three quarters century old but recent developments suggest that the situation is getting too worse with each passing day. On one hand the airspace & other territorial violation by China are increasing day by day, US is flexing its muscles in South China Sea in favour of Taiwan is increasing the tensions on the other hand.

 
Chinese territorial ambitions are endless which is visible from its historical claim over the South China Sea. Since it did not accept any kind of treaty or agreement with any of its neighbours, it keeps all the options open on some flimsy narratives. Today we see that both China and United States are at loggerheads over the issue of Taiwan. On 23rd May 2022, US president Joe Biden has said that he would be willing to use force to defend Taiwan. This is against the long-standing policy of America which used to call involvement of American Military in Taiwan issue as a "Strategic Ambiguity". On the other hand, China always considered Taiwan as a breakaway province and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping has been reiterating time and again that "Reunification of China with Taiwan must be fulfilled even if China has to use force to achieve it".

While both the countries are talking about use of force, Chinese military has been violating Taiwanese territory time and again. Sometimes they do it in large swarms like in October 2021 during the events of Taiwanese National Day, when 145 Chinese Jets violated the Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) of Taiwan in a short span of 4 days. Today, the frequency of violation is so much that on an average we see 2-3 territorial violations by China every week. So, when American President Joe Biden warned China that it is "Flirting with Dagger" by flying its warplanes close to Taiwan, Chinese Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe replied at "Shangri-La-Dialogue" in Singapore by saying that "if anyone dares to secede Taiwan from China, we will not hesitate to fight. We will fight at all costs and we will fight to the very end. This is the only choice for China"

So, the biggest questions are- 

Is South China Sea heading for a conflict? Or Can we visualise war clouds over Taiwan strait? or Is it just a rhetoric between United States and China or will it turn into the reality too?

Indeed, if we see a mathematical military balance, China is way ahead of Taiwan and it is impossible for the Island nation to stand in front of dragon in case of a full-fledged war but there are various permutations and combinations. We must believe that there is a big difference between actual action and a rhetoric. There are strong reasons to believe that possibility of current events turning into a war is extremely difficult keeping in view of the current geostrategic situation & status of China.

1. China's Economic Situation & its overseas debt crisis- At present, China is going through an economic turmoil. With its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects getting failed all across the world & its debt trap policy going in drain is causing massive dent on Chinese economy. The money loaned or invested in various countries of the world including Pakistan, Sri Lanka & various African countries is stuck up causing a liquidity crunch in Beijing and is termed as the biggest overseas debt crisis in the history of China. Further, post COVID circumstances and global economic slowdown has added more pains. Under such situation, no wise country would like to go for a war.

2. Global Economy under the clout of Russia-Ukraine War- Current scenario of Russia Ukraine war has caused great impact on Global perspective. While the world economy has slowed down due to this war, starting another war front in South China sea will invariably invite more trouble for China. Unlike Russia, it does not have many allies & is already isolated on the global front. Any further adventure in the light of Russia-Ukraine war will shatter all ambitions of China to be a superpower. 

3. Relations with America & fear of sanctions- Chinese relations with America have always been strained to critical extent. As we saw that the war of words between Xi Jinping & Joe Biden is getting severe, America is looking for an opportunity to put brakes on dragon whom it considers as the biggest economic threat. Any action from China against Taiwan will invite the wrath of America in the form of sanctions. We must remember that China is not Russia. Chinese economy is far more dependent on global economy than that of Russia and in the event of global financial sanctions, its economy will collapse like a pack of cards. 

4. Taiwanese Stance of "Caution with Status-Quo" - Over the years, Taiwan has been following a policy of Caution with Status-Quo. While on one hand it avoided to formally declare a full-fledged independence, it is investing on its Defence needs & buying war machines in a large scale. While Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has always said that her country is a sovereign state, she understands well that any move to formally declare sovereignty will be catalytic to the conflict. Most of her countrymen also understand this and support her stance. 

5. India & the Indian Ocean Factor- While South China sea is a matter of concern, India is emerging as a fast-growing economy and in the light of its territorial conflicts with China, is ready to take on the voids if they are created by China in the event of a war with Taiwan. Further, India has invested a lot on its maritime forces & is capable of enforcing a marine blockade in Indian Ocean at its will. If at all, China wants to make some misadventure towards Taiwan, things will not be smooth. 

While we see a verbal rhetoric at all global platforms and see how Chinese leaders are spewing venom against US & Taiwan, we also see how American leaders are flexing muscles to show their supremacy to the world. However, in case of Taiwan- things are not so easy. America do not want its feet dragged into another Afghanistan or Vietnam and at the same time China also understands the repercussions of an adventure. Current Taiwanese policy of Status quo is the answer and both China and Taiwan understand it well. Although time only has the answer to the questions but present circumstances rule out any major armed conflict. 

(Major Amit Bansal is a Defence Strategist, views expressed are his own)