Pakistan gears up for major offensive in Balochistan, will it put Baloch people in concentration camps like Uyghur of China?

Will Pakistan split the restive province of Balochistan into many smaller administrative units to wipe out the Baloch national sentiment that has been driving a separatist movement for decades? Or, will Islamabad come down upon the Baloch people, especially the secessionist outfits like the Balochistan Liberation Army heavily? Will the state of Pakistan crush the movement for a separate homeland for the Baloch people and commit atrocities on them like never before to wipe them out?

After Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir threatened the separatist groups and vowed a decisive crackdown, these questions are being asked in Pakistan. Threatening the Baloch nationalist groups like Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) and Baloch Republican Army (BRA), he said, "We will beat the hell out of these terrorists very soon …you think, these 1500 terrorists belonging to BLA, BLF and BRA, etc, can take away Balochistan from us." He made his intention clear when he said, "Today we are giving this clear message together that whatever stands in the way of Pakistan’s progress, we will remove that obstacle together." 

However, analysts believe, this may be the tip of the iceberg. The BLA hijacked an entire train last month and reportedly more than 250 people including army personnel and 33 militants were killed in the operation carried out in Balochistan. This has shaken the Pakistan establishment from within and now it is working on several issues. 

It is believed that the Pakistan government may split Balochistan into many smaller administrative units, all under the iron grip of the central authority, so that the nationalist sentiment may be crushed slowly and gradually. The splintered areas may not have the Baloch sentiment, and thus, the nationalist movement may easily be crushed. 

Taking lessons from the train hijacking incident of March 2024, Pakistan has already announced a "comprehensive military operation". They have targeted groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). Pakistan Army is most likely to deploy additional forces, including infantry divisions, paramilitary units, and air support. They may get the support of China which may supply them with drones or fighter jets. 

The military operations could focus on rebel strongholds in southern Balochistan, and areas like Bolan, Khuzdar, or Gwadar may be targeted. Some experts believe Islamabad might emulate China’s Xinjiang model, and set up "concentration camps" for Baloch tribals. It can not be ruled out considering allegations of enforced disappearances and crackdowns on peaceful activists. 
However, analysts believe, heavy-handed tactics, like those used in past counterinsurgency efforts, may further alienate civilians and fuel recruitment for groups like the BLA. 

Though some sane voices support the idea of taking political initiative and holding talks with civil society groups like the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC), these people have been marginalized. The arrest of human rights activist Mahrung Baloch has sent a strong signal. Though Pakistan can still take some economic steps like announcing development of infrastructure projects, if they don't take the people of Baloch in confidence, such steps may further complicate the isse instead of improving the situation. 

So, what is the way forward? Pakistan is most likely to repeat past mistakes and further alienate its people.