Is Bangladesh Army waiting for right moment to stage coup against Muhammad Yunus? Can India remain mute spectator?

Is Bangladesh bracing for an army coup? Is the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government moving towards an inevitable collapse? The ominous signs are clearer and prosaic than ever before. The Nobel laureate economist, who is considered by many as a stooge of the US deep state, is getting trapped in the web of his own making. He has become extremely unpopular; the Islamist forces he has unleashed to take on secular forces have become so unacceptable that people want to get rid of them. The majority of the general masses of the country is just waiting for an opportunity to throw away the Yunus dispensation. 

Is Bangladesh Army waiting for opportune moment?

And the Army is waiting. The Bangladesh Army has been waiting since Muhammad Yunus arrived in Dhaka on August 9, 2024. General Waker Uz Zaman, a close relative of deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, extended support to the economist in the hope that he would heal the wounds of the country, strike reconciliation, hold elections soon and put the South Asian country back on its track. In August last year, he promised to hold the general elections in three months. However, Bangladesh has yet to hear the announcement of the elections schedule. 

(General Wakar-uz-Zaman, Chief of Staff, Bangladesh Army)

Vertical split in Bangladesh Army

In an attempt to weaken General Waker Uz Zaman, Muhammad Yunus appointed Khalilur Rahman, a US citizen, as National Security Advisor. Secondly, due to Yunus' stand on allowing the US Army to arrive in the country to intervene in Myanmar, the Bangladeshi Army appears to be vertically split. The Chief of Army Staff and most other senior officers of the Bangladesh Army believe that the emergent security situation in Bangladesh and Myanmar could any interference in Myanmar may cast a shadow over China, Russia and India and the country could get enmeshed in a "geopolitical competition" that could push Bangladesh to the centre of this storm.

Why is General Waker Uz Zaman angry?

General Waker Uz Zaman is also upset with Muhammad Yunus' alleged attempt to undermine the police force and replace it with a shadowy 'Auxiliary Force'. The general is extremely upset with Yunu's alleged plan of dismantling the army itself and placing "Islamic Revolutionary Army". The rumour mill started working overtime when General Zaman visited Russia on April 7. He met Russian Deputy Defense Minister General Fomin, Army Chief General Oleg Salyukov, and representatives of defense firms Rostec, Rosoboronexport and Rosatom. It is believed that he discussed defence cooperation with Moscow to undermine the Chinese impact. However, it was rumoured that he discussed the possibility of a coup there.

The rumour of a possible coup or its plan may be just a rumour, but the vertical split in the Bangladesh Army is evident. Can India be a mute spectator to the drama unfolding in its neighbourhood? Or will it do something to get rid of Muhammad Yunus. The economist has mellowed down his anti-India rhetoric dramatically after Operation Sindoor. What does it signify?