Iran protests: Why US might not attack Islamic Republic despite Trump's repeated threats

For days now, United States President Donald Trump has been threatening military action against Iran as the Islamic Republic faces one of the biggest wave of protests in years. But it remains unclear what the US' plan would entail, if there is one. Trump's forces have not mobilised any aircraft carriers towards the region. The US' allies in the Gulf -- reeling from Iranian airstrikes during last year's conflict with Israel -- have also shown little to no interest in hosting an American attack on Iran. Here's why Trump's threats against the Islamic Republic might just be all talk.

According to a report by The Guardian newspaper, the US has had no aircraft carriers deployed in the Middle East since October. This means that any air strike on targets in Iran would have to involve US and allied airbases in the region. In such a scenario, the US would need to seek permission to use bases in countries such as Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, the UAE, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. America would also have to provide protection to the host countries against any possible retaliation from Iran. Another alternative for the US could be an attack similar to last year's B2 bombing mission against an underground Iranian nuclear site. But such a strike in an urban, highly-populated area could prove to be catastrophic.

Another issue that the US is reportedly facing is the identification of targets for a strike, especially because massive protests and a bloody government crackdown are taking place across the country. Even after the sites are identified, ensuring the accuracy of the target remains a key challenge.

Experts also believe the Iranian regime could use any US attacks as a rallying point for what is left of its support in the country. The regime, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, might be unpopular among the common people, but the government does not appear to be weak. The regime had also survived Israel's powerful attack in June last year. "The government is showing it doesn't have any red lines: it is going to secure its borders and streets, and the extraordinary number of body bags reveals its determination to do so," Roxane Farmanfarmaian, senior associate at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, told The Guardian. Trump might also consider a direct attack on Khamenei, but killing the leader would lead to a number of legal concerns and invite a sustained military response.