Flood refugees threaten Pakistan political stability

Millions of people forced to flee their homes by Pakistan's worst ever floods may emerge as the most explosive issue for a feeble government in the wake of a disaster that will strain the economy for years to come.

Pakistan was already under growing pressure to deal with over a million people forced from their homes by fighting between the army and homegrown Taliban militants in the northwest.

Now it has to devise a comprehensive strategy to tackle a wider crisis — 10 million people displaced by the floods — that could create political instability in a frontline state in the US war on militancy.

"If these people are not somehow accommodated, and their issues not addressed in terms of basic shelter, basic food, medical care and rehabilitation and in terms of livelihood, then we are looking at a potentially large social unrest," said Kamran Bokhari, South Asia director at STRATFOR global intelligence firm.

"Dislocation by itself can bring down states and governments, in theory," he said.

To tackle the problem, the cash-strapped government has to come up with vast funds, work out complicated logistics and, most importantly, prove that it can take charge now that the military has done most of the heavy lifting during flood relief and rescue operations.

Leaving displacement issues to the powerful military as well could further undermine the state's credibility.

Analysts say, while an army-led coup is highly unlikely, the military may feel inclined to take measured action if the government completely fails to help those displaced by the floods, especially since the Taliban could recruit flood victims who give up on the state.

"In a situation of crisis when the civilian government loses legitimacy, it may be easy for the military to either manipulate the government from the sidelines, or indirectly bring in its own men to replace the government," said political analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi.

Critics say the government and the army have been pressuring the people displaced by fighting, to return home, despite security fears and lack of resources to rebuild.

Former Taliban stronghold Swat Valley, one of the areas hardest hit by the floods, highlights the multiple layers of the displacement problem.

A Taliban farmer, Niamat Ali Khan, killed his brother, two uncles and kidnapped and tortured him, he said, so he fled his home and spent two years at a refugee camp.

After receiving assurances from the military, Khan said, he returned home. Then the floods swept away his home and land.

"I have no money to rebuild my home and the government has not helped us so far despite promises," he said.

The authorities may not be able to offer assistance for a long time. Flood damages are likely to run into the tens of billions of dollars, money Pakistan will struggle to secure.

There are also other problems.

The World Bank and the US have urged Pakistan to take steps to reassure donors that it is capable of using their flood aid responsibly and transparently.

The International Crisis Group think tank said in a report that the floods have turned displacement into a "national disaster of mammoth proportions", and has urged the government to handle it.

"Given the scale of the needs, there may be a temptation among donors to circumvent civilian structures and work directly with the military to deliver aid, but this would be a dangerous choice," says Samina Ahmed, its South Asia project director.

"The military should certainly provide logistic support, but only under control of the civilian government and in support of the latter's objectives," she said.