China’s imbroglio – Why a superpower failed to win a tiny island

Soon after the visit of United States Speaker Nancy Pelosi, China started large-scale military exercises in the territorial waters of Taiwan. While world powers are trying to contain the situation, China is pushing forward with its ambiguous 'One China' policy which makes the erstwhile island of Formosa (Present day Taiwan) as its territory. Although China is eying for major strategic, military and economic benefits by acquiring Taiwan, there is something which is stopping it from launching an all-out military campaign for last seven decades.

Erstwhile Formosa has been a bone of contention between several civilisations. In the seventeenth century, Portuguese, Dutch and Spanish people landed on this island but faced still resistance from the locals. In the late seventeenth century Chinese people took over the island and finally the rule of Qing dynasty lasted till late nineteenth century till they were defeated by Japan. Formosa played a vital role in all the battles and it was one of the most difficult campaigns for Japanese forces during the Sino-Japanese war after which the island was ceded to Japan as it has large strategic importance. During World War II, Taiwan was a major base of Japanese forces to launch attacks in southeast Asia and thus witnessed large scale military campaigns from allied forces but due to the geostrategic location of the island, they failed to wrest physical control till it was ceded by Japan to China after Japanese defeat in the war. So historically, it has been a difficult task for any invading force to occupy this tiny island.

The present tensions in Taiwan strait are not new and the pot is boiling ever since Chiang-Kai-Shek moved here and established his government of Republic of China. A question arises here as to what is stopping China from invading Taiwan and what makes this tiny island almost invincible to China?

1. Geostrategic perspective - Unlike Ukraine and Russia, there is no land border between the territories of China and Taiwan. The only division is a deep Taiwan strait which is about 130-160Km wide. This oval shaped island has a heavily forested mountain ridge running down the entire length of the country from south to north. All the major cities like Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung are well spread out and are geographically separate. Taiwan also has a vast network of canals and rivers which will act as an obstacle for any military. Moving from one part of the island to other part for an invader is going to be extremely expensive as the terrain does not allow it and Chinese forces will not be an exception.

2. China cannot maintain surprise - Being an island nation, the only way Taiwan can be attacked is through Air and Sea. While sending large columns of military through Air is not possible, the only option left is to carry out beach landings. Since China is just over a hundred miles away, any action of its preparation, mobilisation of forces or assembly of ships will be noticed immediately. Furthermore, even if it tries to launch an air attack, the same will be visible to Taiwanese radars well in advance giving them adequate warning. It is said that In a war, if the surprise is lost, victory is lost. Even if China relies on its stand off weapons like missiles etc, it need to come physically to occupy the island and the possibility of which remain grim.

3. Taiwan’s preparations - China is the only enemy of Taiwan & as the people of this tiny island territory have been living in constant fear of a possible Chinese invasion for over seven decades, they have been preparing well keeping all the possibilities of an escalation of conflict with China. They have mined the unused sea routes, created anti landing obstacles on all possible sites where Chinese can land and deployed their sensors in such a way that even the smallest of activity on Chinese side is noticed immediately. Although their armed forces are just a faction of Chinese PLA, yet they have a strong 15 Lakh reserve force which undergoes training periodically and is as good as a regular military. Taiwan has created tunnels, bunkers, bomb shelters and a large underground infrastructure to keep its man and machine safe from Chinese missile attacks.

Probably today, Taiwan is the only territory in the world where there are proper protocols in place for a war and the entire population is well trained to react in case of any such event. In all perspectives, Taiwanese defence preparations are one of the best in the world. Now when we talk about offensive capabilities, major industrial towns of China like Shanghai, Guangzhou & Beijing are well within the range of Taiwanese missiles and being dense cities are quite vulnerable to any incoming attack. A major Taiwanese offensive may destroy the industrial backbone of China.

4. Availability of Chinese forces – China has a large Army but when it comes to committing its forces against Taiwan, a big question mark arises. Since China has territorial disputes with nearly all its neighbours, it cannot commit all of its forces to Taiwan. It has to maintain a minimal threshold level along all of its borders including India, Korean peninsula, Kazakhstan, Tibet, Xinjiang and other places and thus as per a rough comparison, will be able to commit barely 30 per cent of its forces and reserves towards Taiwan which if analysed, looks like a failed attempt at the very beginning. Moreover, China does not have adequate landing crafts and other vessels needed for an invasion.

5. US presence and the Japanese factor - In case of Taiwan, US and Japanese factors cannot be ignored. Any attempt of occupation of Taiwan by Chinese forces will be a direct threat to Japanese territorial integrity and in such case, it will be bound to react. Further, there is a huge American presence in Okinawa which is just at a stone’s throw away from Taiwan. Also, due to the ongoing tensions, a few of the carrier battle groups of American Navy are always present in the vicinity of Taiwan and these factors can not be ignored when we talk about Chinese threat. These are also the indirect strategic support available with Taiwan.

6. Taiwan being a democracy – Earlier Taiwan had Marshal law for several decades but in recent years, democracy has flourished and under the present president Tsai-Ing-Wan, the country has been growing on both economic and democratic fronts. Due to this factor, Taiwan has tremendous support of world economies who would take any Chinese attempt of invasion of the tiny island as a threat since China itself has been accused of murdering democracy in the veil of communism. This will not only alienate China from the rest of the world but also kill its ambitions of being an economic superpower.

7. Threat of Sanctions - Invasion of Taiwan cannot be a cakewalk for China, it will immediately invite sanctions from the western world which is desperately seeking an attempt to put brakes on dragon. In addition to economic sanctions, western world has the capacity to stop Chinese trade going through Panama, Suez & Indo-pacific which will can prove out to be suicidal for China if it even thinks of attacking Taiwan. In the post COVID scenario, Chinese economy is suffering badly and it is not in a position to take any more brunt.

The much debated “One China Policy” itself is full of ambiguities where the status of People’s republic of China and the Republic of China are not clear. Taiwan, in last few years has been demanding an independent status and there is no military solution to this problem. China may keep flexing its muscles by carrying out exercises and threatening Taiwan but the same may not be fruitful. However, one thing is sure that China is not in a position to occupy Taiwan militarily. Any attempt will be resisted well and the ultimate loser will be China itself. The only option available is that it has to talk to Taiwanese leadership and adopt an acceptable solution.