Bronislaw Komorowski leads race to Polish presidency

Poland's acting head of state, Bronislaw Komorowski, won most votes in an election on Sunday that was forced by the death of president Lech Kaczynski in a plane crash, but faces a runoff vote against Kaczynski's twin.

Exit polls showed between 41 and 46% of Poles voted for Komorowski, the candidate of the ruling pro-business Civic Platform (PO), and up to 36% for Jaroslaw Kaczynski, head of the right-wing main opposition party Law and Justice (PiS).

Grzegorz Napieralski, candidate of the leftist SLD party, did better than expected with about 13% of the vote. But he and the other seven candidates now drop out of the race, leaving Komorowski and Kaczynski to contest the July 4 runoff.

The two men, both conservative Catholics but with differing styles and views on the euro, market reforms and Poland's place in Europe, are expected to court Napieralski's voters actively.

"Let's mobilise our forces for July 4," Komorowski told jubilant supporters at his campaign headquarters.

The president, though less powerful than the government, can veto laws, appoints many key officials and has a say in foreign and security policy.

Lech Kaczynski had angered prime minister Donald Tusk's economically liberal government by blocking some reforms.

Sunday's election, billed as the most unusual in Poland's 21-year post-communist history, was called after the death of Lech Kaczynski and 95 others, mostly top political and military officials, in a plane crash in Russia on April 10.

Komorowski became acting president on Kaczynski's death in his capacity as speaker of parliament.

Political analysts cautioned against complacency in the Komorowski camp, noting that Kaczynski's core supporters are older, more disciplined and more likely to vote next month when many of PO's richer, younger voters will be on vacation.

"PiS has an iron electorate, while PO's is less determined and could ignore the second round. If that is the case, it is possible for Kaczynski to win," said Iwona Jakubowska-Branicka, a sociologist at Warsaw University.

A survey by SMG-KRC pollster conducted for TVN24 television on Sunday evening showed Komorowski winning 54% in the July 4 runoff vote against 39% for Kaczynski.

Financial markets would welcome a victory for Komorowski, a gently-spoken moderate, because he would be expected to work smoothly with the government as it tries to rein in a large budget deficit and to prepare Poland for eventual euro entry.

Kaczynski would probably use his presidential veto to block some reforms, though he has toned down his rhetoric and has said he will seek compromises if elected.

"Instead of harsh, improper and unjust words, we want to have meaningful dialogue," Kaczynski told his supporters after Sunday's exit polls confirmed a second round would be needed, in remarks possibly calculated to appeal to leftist voters.

Many on the left in Poland dislike Kaczynski's nationalistic, eurosceptic brand of conservatism.

"Grzegorz Napieralski is an obvious ally for Komorowski. But, of course, it's not certain the entire 13% (won by Napieralski) will transfer to Komorowski. He'll have to work for them," said Pawel Swieboda, head of the DemosEuropa think-tank.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski served as prime minister briefly from 2006 to 2007 when his nationalist views, particularly his deep suspicion of Germany and Russia, severely strained Poland's relations with its neighbours and with the European Union.

The April plane crash sparked an upsurge of sympathy for Jaroslaw, who was close to his brother. Some voters said they were voting for Kaczynski because they saw him as the champion of ordinary Poles against powerful elites.

"Kaczynski is the only choice. He is for patriotism, culture and solidarity, not just big business," said Maria Derkacz, 63, a translator, casting her vote in Warsaw.

Tusk's government will be hoping that Poland's relatively strong performance during the global financial crisis will boost support for their candidate in the second round.

Poland was the only member of the 27-strong European Union to avoid recession last year when its economy expanded 1.8%. It is expected to grow about 3% in 2010.

Turnout on Sunday was 52%, slightly higher than in the last presidential election in 2005. About 30 million Poles out of a population of 38 million had been eligible to vote.

Authorities laid on special transport for voters in some regions badly affected by floods after heavy spring rains, but few seemed to take advantage of the help.

"The half an hour or so it would take me to go and vote are the equivalent of dozens of buckets of mud and slime I can remove from my house," one resident told TVN24.

The floods in May and early June killed at least 24 people, forced the evacuation of tens of thousands and caused billions of zlotys' worth of damage in southern and central Poland.