'Axis of Good' and the Turkish Dilemma

The recent visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin along with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Iranian capital Tehran is on the crosshairs of the world powers. Although, Russia and Iran have a common agenda and have been on the forefront of anti-US campaign for long, Turkey is an odd-man-out, not only because it has been an old American ally but also a current and active NATO member.

As Russia, Iran and Turkey are coming together, they are calling their coalition as “Axis of Good” against the American term used by the then President George W Bush for trio of Iran, Iraq and North Korea as “Axis of Evil”. While Russia and Iran have a common reason to form an anti-US coalition as both the countries have suffered badly in the hand of US in the past, the reason of Turkey joining them and how will it benefit Turkey is a question to be analysed. We also have to analyse the Turkish dilemma and the factor that will US be able to digest its old ally and NATO member joining an anti-US alliance and will it not take any punitive action? Although Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is keen to join this coalition and his intent were crystal clear, there are lot many factors which may need to be analysed.

We also have to see that will Turkey be accepted into a Russia led coalition or its role will remain that of a mediator as happened during the recent grain trans-shipment agreement between Russia and Ukraine? The real Turkish dilemma and its contributing factors need to be analysed well.

1. Turkish Economy - Turkey is going through a very bad phase as far as economic situation of the country is concerned. The monthly inflation rate is nearing 80 per cent and the currency is taking a steep dive. Turkey was hit hard by the fallout from the European debt crisis in 2012 and the threat of higher interest rates by the US Federal Reserve in 2013 and it has not been able to recover since then. Exactly 5 years back the price of a US Dollar was around 3.5 Lira which is now touching 18 Lira which is more than 500 per cent inflation. In current context, Erdogan knows well that his country can not survive under the clout of European Union or America hence he is looking for allies outside Europe & America.

2. Establish itself as an Arms Exporter - In past decade, Turkey realised that it could establish itself as an Arms exporter in the world. It has supplied war machines in Georgian war, Armenian War and several other conflicts ever since then. It is also one of the major suppliers of Armed drones in the world. Turkey knows it well that if it stays as a NATO member under the shadow of United States which is the biggest arms exporter in the world, it will have to face issues in achieving its aim. Probably this meeting of Erdogan in Tehran could be aimed to create new allies. Turkey wants to open new fronts outside NATO for selling its war machines.

3. The Syrian Crisis - It is a matter of fact that while Turkey is a typical Sunni Islamic country, Iran is a Shia state. As Iran and Russia are backing up Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s coalition in the Syrian war, Turkey is supporting the opposition. Turkey has not only given shelter to these anti Assad groups on its territory but also helping them with war machines, logistics, training, battlefield intelligence and operational planning. Kurdish factor is also one of the issues. Both Russia & Iran have suffered a lot in the past and it is very unlikely that they will accept Turkey in their coalition as long as it keep on supporting anti Assad forces in Syria.

4. Erdogan’s dream of rejuvenating the glory of Ottoman empire - Turkish premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan has mentioned it number of times that he wishes to rejuvenate the glory of its old Ottoman empire which once ruled half of the world. This is something like a neo-Nazi thought process which can be dangerous for the world too. Similar kind of thoughts after the first world war Germany gave rise to Hitler. Erdogan cannot do this till he stays as a member of NATO so he has to make new allies, open new fronts and join new coalitions to achieve this aim.

5. Effect on World order - Turkey’s geographical location is such that it acts as a barrier between Asia and Europe and Turkey now wants to optimally utilise this factor. On one hand, it is showing its inclination to join Chinese Belt and Road initiative (BRI) while on the other hand, it is planning to be a part of Russia led International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This will have a different effect on the world order and grouping of countries. Although the primary aim of Turkey is to stabilise its economy but in a long run it also wants the world to realise that Turkey can become a world power too.

Although the Turkish intent are full of anticipations and assumptions but in today’s scenario when the country itself is suffering from an economic crisis and an identity crisis, joining any coalition may backfire for Erdogan and under those circumstances, balancing out the scale of power will be extremely difficult.