Champions Trophy preview: Is long wait finally over for England?

When England's one-day cricketers draw the curtain of their Birmingham hotel on Sunday - assuming that none of them is still in the nearby Walkabout bar - they will find themselves required to enter a place they have never been in before.

No England player has won the final of an adult global 50-over tournament. Graeme Swann won the youth World Cup in South Africa in 1999, but today's final of the Champions Trophy is not quite the same in terms of tension and expectation. Besides, he is unlikely to be risked with the Ashes Test series less than three weeks away. This is an historic failure which will weigh upon Alastair Cook's team. Graham Gooch, the batting coach of England's Test side (Graham Thorpe is the one-day batting coach), played in three World Cup finals from 1979 to 1992.

But no England cricketer, past or present, has ever got over the 50-over line. As a result, the key word Alastair Cook used yesterday was "desperate". "We haven't won a global 50?over tournament, as everyone keeps reminding me every time I sit in one of these press conferences," Cook said. "So yes, I know that pretty well, and we're desperately keen to try and change that so you guys can talk about something else."

When reminded that England had lost not only three World Cup finals but also the Champions Trophy final of 2004, Cook replied: "We've been playing some good cricket, and it's an opportunity we're desperate not to let go." When India's one-day cricketers draw their curtains, they will see the same damp streets of inner Birmingham in a rather different light. England were nervous - as Cook himself admitted - in what was effectively their quarter-final against New Zealand, and again in their semi-final against South Africa, when they needed the major advantage of winning the toss.

But for India's players almost every game is loaded with expectation. For Cook and his players, Edgbaston's crowd of 24,000 will be one of the biggest they have ever experienced. For MS Dhoni and his players, a crowd of 24,000 will be one of the smallest they have ever experienced since becoming internationals. Even then, according to ICC organisers, the majority will be supporting India in a ratio of 60:40.

Given a full sunny day, therefore, and a pitch similar to those dry ones that have prevailed in this tournament so far, India could be expected to beat England. Such has been India's brilliance in every main department to date - their batting, their newly virile pace, their traditionally varied spin, their all?round athletic fielding for the first time ever - that in such circumstances they would defeat England two times out of three, at least.

Of all its facets, Indian cricket is at its best when it comes to limited-overs batting. In their last 21 one-day internationals they have been bowled out only four times, and have passed 300 six times. It could be argued that their batting so far has been too strong: in only one match have they lost more than two wickets, and their middle order has been deprived of match practice. But in their warm-up against Australia at Cardiff, Dinesh Karthik scored a dazzling 146 not out and Dhoni a typically forthright 91.

England's batting, on the other hand, still on occasion bears the square-peg-in-round-hole hallmark that it has never shed since the almost successful World Cup of 1992. In their last 21 one-dayers, they have passed 300 once, and been bowled out seven times. In their last qualifier against New Zealand, England managed to be dismissed in less than the 24 overs to which their innings was limited, losing their last seven wickets in six overs.

Stacked in India's favour in sunny conditions, this final, however, will not be played in them. Those curtains, when drawn back this morning, are due to reveal rain which will be replaced only slowly by sunshine. Moreover, the Edgbaston pitch was covered throughout yesterday even when the sun was shining, as well as on Friday, so it is sure to be damper than the previous Edgbaston pitches and reduce the effectiveness of India's spinners: Ravindra Jadeja, who has bowled more dot-balls than anyone in this Champions Trophy (133), and Ravichandra Ashwin. In the dampness, England have the trump card of James Anderson and his new-ball conventional swing. His counterpart Bhuvneshwar Kumar has been the most economical pace bowler in this tournament of those who have bowled 15 or more overs, but Anderson has had the pace, snap and penetration to give him a wicket every 19.8 balls. For Cook to win the toss and send India in will itself have a disconcerting effect as Dhoni prefers to chase.

For Anderson to probe opening batsmen who have little experience of English conditions, and of judging which ball to leave, will be even more so. Here lies England's best chance of winning their first 50-over global trophy, with Stuart Broad and Tim Bresnan following Anderson's lead. Then there will be no need for England's batsmen, whether batting second or first, to scale the unaccustomed heights of 300. Dhoni acknowledged that the toss might be as influential as it was in the two semi-finals.

"If it's bright and sunny, I don't think it will have that much of an impact, but if it's overcast and you had a bit of rain before the start of the game, then it may have an impact on the game." In these decisive moments, in addition to home advantage, England will also have local knowledge to set against the disadvantage of never having been here before. Ian Bell and Jonathan Trott gauged pretty accurately what was a defendable target against Australia on this ground, and they have, in Ashley Giles, the world expert in Edgbaston conditions.

As England's one-day coach, Giles will remind his charges this morning to focus on their roles, without distraction. He was not at fault in the Champions Trophy of 2004, being one of the few batsmen who did not freeze in England's last global final. Unfortunately for England, their coach on that occasion, watching them under-perform, is now India's, and Duncan Fletcher knows where the skeletons are buried in his old team's psyche.