1972 study predicted world collapse by 2040 - New research shows we're right on track

In 1972, a landmark study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) stated that human society is on the verge of collapsing in the next two decades, i.e. by 2040. The study is in the news again after fresh research concluded that it may "become a reality."

Gaya Herrington, a sustainability analyst at KMPG, re-analysed the data in the MIT study - The Limits to Growth. She studied 10 key variables, including population, industrial output, population, fertility rates, pollution levels, food production etc. Herrington found that, in a worst-case scenario, industrial civilisation could be on track to collapse by 2040.

The moral of the story, Herrington told The Guardian, is that business as usual - an approach that's worsened global climate change and largely failed to mitigate the resulting weather disasters - will likely lead to economic and societal collapse.

Herrington said that if people had listened to the original study, the planet might be in better shape. "The MIT scientists said we needed to act now to achieve a smooth transition and avoid costs. That didn't happen, so we're seeing the impact of climate change."

However, she also feels it's not too late to clean up our act. "We're totally capable of making huge changes," Herrington told the Guardian, "and we've seen with the pandemic, but we have to act now if we're to avoid costs much greater than we're seeing."

MIT 1972 Prediction: What was the study about?

In 1972, a team of scientists from MIT used a computer model to look into the future of humanity after receiving a commission from the Club of Rome, an international group of leading academics, scientists, business leaders, and politicians. The report - The Limits to Growth - used a systematics dynamics model, known as World3, to predict that the industrial world could collapse during the 21st century, due to over-exploitation of the planet. 

A group of MIT scientists stated in that report, which was published in the bestselling book "The Limits to Expansion" (1972), that industrial civilisation would be doomed if businesses and governments continued to pursue continuous economic growth at any cost. Published in book form, it has since sold 30 million copies worldwide.

The researchers proposed 12 future scenarios, the majority of which anticipated that natural resources would become scarce to the point that further economic expansion would be impossible and personal welfare would drop.