The 'discrepancy' has led to several economists questioning the Budget numbers which have projected higher earnings for government in 2019-20 than it is likely to earn
The government earned much less in 2018-19 than the Budget, presented by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday, shows. The 'discrepancy' has led to several economists questioning the Budget numbers which have projected higher earnings for government in 2019-20 than it is likely to earn.
The government earned in 2018-19 about Rs 1.65 lakh crore less than what the latest Budget numbers show. While the provisional actuals, the updated numbers for 2018-19, were made available by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) much ahead of the Budget preparation, the finance ministry chose to use six-month old data in the Budget, economists have questioned.
"What is weird is that the provisional actuals were used in the Economic Survey by the finance ministry but the projections for the current fiscal in the Budget have been based on the revised estimates (RE) figures of the interim Budget," said Pronab Sen, former chief statistician of India. "If you compare the budgetary provisions with the provisional actuals, the figures look unrealistically high," he said.
"CGA data was available by the end of March. The finance ministry should have used it to make a realistic Budget estimation rather than using dated data," said D K Srivastava, chief policy advisor at EY.
As per the revised estimates used in the Budget, the government earned a total of Rs 17.3 lakh crore in 2018-19. However, the provisional accounts, also used in the Economic Survey, show that the government earned 13.5% less at Rs 15.6 lakh crore- a shortfall of Rs 1.7 lakh crore. Similarly, the actual expenditure for 2018-19 is lower than the RE by Rs 1.45 lakh crore or 13.4%. As per RE, the total expenditure was pegged at Rs 24.6 lakh crore in 2018-19, while the actuals show the government spent only about Rs 23.1 lakh crore.
The impact of this is going to be on the central ministries as well as on the state Budgets. "The ministries' expenditure plans will go haywire when half-way through they will find the monies are not there. Similarly, it will be a mess for the states because they use the figures in the Budget, " said Sen, adding that the implication for the overall budgetary process in the country is serious.
"Now that it has been pointed out, the sensible thing for the government will be to present a revised Budget. Otherwise, Parliament will vote on the expenditure which is higher than what the revenues allow," said Sen.
Many economists feel that this was done to show that the government is reasonable in tax growth assumption, but it is still able to expand expenditure, particularly capital expenditure, also bringing down fiscal deficit down marginally.
The government has pegged the fiscal deficit target for 2018-19 at 3.4% of the GDP. "This will also lead to the fiscal deficit target going up by 0.75%," said Srivastava.
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
 "Nirmala Sitharaman")
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
)
)
)
)
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}