Shiv Sena critical appraisal

Shiv Sena president Uddhav Thackeray may have succeeded in staring down the BJP for its flirtations with the rival Raj Thackeray led MNS, but the Sena has an uphill task on hand in the first elections to be held after the death of its charismatic chief Bal Thackeray in 2012. Though Uddhav has worked hard to regain lost ground, tap the protest vote against the Congress- NCP and cobbled up a rainbow coalition with three smaller political fronts,

party insiders feel some factors may risk spoiling the show. These include lack of a strong second-rung leadership, increasing assertion by the BJP, chances of the MNS entering into underhand adjustments with the BJP and a possible migration of voters to other parties like the MNS. Uddhav, who will face off with estranged cousin Raj, who is pitched as his uncle's natural political inheritor, for the first time after Thackeray Sr's death, will face a litmus test of his leadership.

Party sources admit Uddhav will have to create a constituency in untapped areas, shed his corporate style and establish a direct rapport with Sainiks as the Sena owes its success to its ground-level organisation.

"The biggest problem for the Sena is Balasaheb's absence," said a Sena activist, adding that Uddhav's success lay in converting the respect for his late father into votes. He lamented that despite a superb network of shakhas in Greater Mumbai, factors like lack of star campaigners apart from Uddhav and absence of mass and second-rung leaders could be inhibiting factors. Moreover, the Sena will have to watch its back for the BJP, which is becoming increasingly aggressive after Thackeray Sr's death and Modi's rise on the national stage, and wants to elbow out the Sena to emerge as the dominant alliance partner with an eye on the assembly polls. The Sena activist said Uddhav needed to clarify his stand on the Mahayuti's agenda if they came to power and said an increased haul of Lok Sabha seats from the present 11 could give the combine a psycological edge in the assembly polls.

"The people are upset at the Congress... There is an anti-Congress wave and people see the Shiv Sena as a good option," said BMC standing committee chairman Rahul Shewale, who is the party candidate from South Central Mumbai, adding that voters had seen through the MNS and hence would not vote for it. A former Sena MLA said that the party would also have to contend with the de-growth of population in the island city and the migration of Maharashtrians—the Sena's core voters—to areas on the periphery of Mumbai, which may affect its electoral fortunes. A senior BJP leader however pointed out that the Sena's base was intact in rural Maharashtra and added that the party would also gain urban votes due to the Modi factor.

"A few years ago, Narayan Rane and Raj Thackeray split from the Shiv Sena and put it on the backfoot," said Sandeep Pradhan, political editor, Maharashtra Times, adding that however, this was among the few instances where the Sena had come across as aggressive. He added that the Sena's biggest shortfall was the absence of an effective leader like Thackeray Sr, who could keep the BJP and MNS in check. Pradhan said the Sena had introduced new, young candidates and but added that however, the vibes between the BJP and the MNS had dominated the people's mindspace and created speculations, which may lead to the Sena's preparations and aggression going out of focus.

"The challenge before the Shiv Sena leadership lies in keeping the focus on themselves and ensuring that the real fight is Congress- NCP vs Shiv Sena- BJP," said Pradhan, adding that the saffron alliance had received a shot in the arm by netting new allies like the RPI (A), Raju Shetti's Swabhimaani Paksha and Rashtriya Samaj Paksha, which could put the NCP on the backfoot in western Maharashtra.