Rise of the Mumbai: Urban votes will call the shots

Rapid urbanisation and migration has resulted in the sharp rise of urban seats in Maharashtra forcing parties to focus on the urban voter also. The Mumbai, Thane, Pune and Nashik belt together has now 95 seats out of the state's 288, as compared to the 78 seats in 2004. Also, in Mumbai the number of seats has gone up from 34 to 36. But what is of interest here is that the island seats have gone down from 17 to 10 while the suburbs where the population has been growing has gone up to 26 from 17. Earlier the island to suburban seats was 17 each. This means that from now on the urban voter will have a greater say in who comes to power.

How did the demographic shift come about?
Urbanisation is the trend all over the country. This happens due to migration of rural populations to urban areas mostly in search of unskilled and semi-skilled labour apart from large-scale development. This seems to have happened in Maharashtra too considering that the state is highly industrialised. Urban India grew by 31.9 per cent in 10 years while rural areas dropped by 12.2 per cent according to the 2011 Census.

Will it affect political outcomes?
Possible. The BJP for instance got huge urban backing in the general elections, just as Congress got 115 urban seats in 2009. Huge demographic shifts affect poll outcomes and in Maharashtra the rise in urban votes would mean different electoral strategies. "Maharashtra politics was always concentrated in the rural, co-operative and sugar crushing belt. Now urban voters have a larger say. Urban voters are more assertive, demanding and want to make the change by their active participation in politics. They want their share of pie in development. In the preceding Lok Sabha elections, urban voters enthusiasm increased the total voting percentage and subsequently result as well," political science professor Nitin Mohod said.

Has the campaign style changed to suit the demand of urban voters?
Maharashtra is the second largest urbanised state with 42.4 per cent urban population, coming after Tamil Nadu's 43.9 per cent. Ashok Chavan, former chief minister, told dna that since last decade, the campaign style has changed. "Earlier we used to focus on the traditional media to connect with the voters. Now, we are using social media platform to reach voters and inform them about our strategy and development. We have set up separate teams that focuses on mobile apps-related communication tools. Our presence is more in urban voters now because of the extensive use of Facebook, Twitter and What'sApp," Chavan said.

Will this shift affect selection of candidate too?
Quite likely. Social media tools are used by all parties and candidates will have to be cued into that. Urban votes like candidates who use modern vocabulary and technical jargon as well. "Urbanisation will definitely influence this assembly election. The era is gone were politicians gave assurances to rural people. Now they too are educated. This is good for a healthy democracy," Sitaram Shelar of Yuva, a voluntary development organisation, said.