Raj Thackeray unlikely to contest Maharashtra assembly elections

MNS chief Raj Thackeray may not contest assembly elections after all. For months together, speculations were rife that he would be the first from his family to contest polls.

After his party's massive debacle in Lok Sabha polls, in which it forfeited security deposits in all 10 seats it contested, Raj had declared at a rally on May 31 that he would contest assembly elections and had also announced his candidature for the chief minister's post. This was seen as a desperate gamble to keep his flock intact.

Raj announcement had also led to speculations about his constituency. There were reports that he would contest from Mahim or from a constituency outside Mumbai.

However, Raj later admitted to a re-think, pointing to a "genetic problem" as no one from the Thackeray clan had fought for public offices.

"Raj saheb may not contest elections," an MNS leader told dna. Reasons cited were: party did not have other leaders for pan-Maharashtra campaigning, and the possibility of him leading a group with just marginal presence in the legislature. The MNS leader also said Raj might spell out his moves at a meeting of party functionaries later this week.

He admitted that Raj's possible u-turn was a setback for the party. "However, other parties have made worse u-turns," he said.

There are indications that another MNS veteran, Sewri MLA Bala Nandgaonkar, may also abstain from contesting to work for the organisation. Sources indicated that MNS might field candidates in around 225 to 250 seats.

In 2009, MNS contested around 143 seats and won 13. The party, which damaged the prospects of Sena-BJP by eating into their natural (vote) catchment area in around 66 segments, contested 34 seats in Mumbai (except Bandra West and Mumbadevi).

In the recent Lok Sabha polls, MNS fought from 10 seats, including three in Mumbai, but its candidates lost their security deposits in all, leading to disillusionment in its ranks. These were the first polls after the death of Sena supremo Bal Thackeray, in 2012. Raj supporters project him as his uncle's natural (political) successor.

On the contrary, Shiv Sena, from which Raj split to form his own party in 2006, riding high on Modi wave, won 18 Lok Sabha seats, despite MNS opposing it in eight of them.

MNS may not ally with other parties, but may make informal seat-sharing arrangements like it did in 2009, when it declared mutual support to then minister Vinay Kore Sawkar's Jana Surajya Shakti (JSS), which has base in Kolhapur. In LS polls, Raj had supported Peasants and Workers Party (PWP) nominees in Maval and Raigad.

MNS loyalists now admit that all is not well with the party and that the electoral debacle is an indication. Two legislators—Kannad MLA Harshavardhan Jadhav and Ghatkopar West MLA Ram Kadam—switched sides to Sena and BJP, respectively.