Maharashtra polls: Shiv Sena-BJP in eyeball to eyeball battle for seats; Sena not ready to settle for less than 150 seats

Has the Shiv Sena outwitted the BJP in the seat-sharing tussle for the October 15 assembly elections? While state BJP leaders admit so, the party's central leadership speaks a different language.

The BJP has been demanding equal number of seats with the Sena. But on Saturday, Sena's Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut said the party would not settle for anything less than 150 of the 288 seats in the assembly.

However, BJP general secretary in-charge of Maharashtra, Rajiv Pratap Rudy, told dna that the party's formula is that as many as 18 seats can be given to the four small allies of the Mahayuti (saffron alliance) and the remaining 270 can be divided equally between the BJP and the Sena. "The state unit can discuss which seats to be exchanged," Rudy told dna.

Rudy said Thackeray's statements will not have a bearing on seat negotiations.

What is the Sena's main argument?
Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray took a swipe at the alliance partners saying tie-ups were forged because of their helplessness and they were "struggling in darkness," pre-alliance. He warned that "excessive lust" by constituents could lead to a split of the rainbow alliance. Thackeray, who has been ambivalent so far, also voiced his chief ministerial ambitions publicly on Saturday.

What is the BJP side of the story?
The BJP believes it was the Modi wave that helped the saffron alliance win 42 of the 48 seats in the recent Lok Sabha elections. A senior BJP leader claims the Sena is unwilling to part with more seats as the BJP has a better strike rate. "Giving us more seats will mean that it may gain further strength. Moreover, if we get more MLAs, we will stake claim to the chief minister's post," he said.

Has the BJP got a better strike rate?
In 2009, when the state's constituency map was re-drawn after the delimitation exercise, the Shiv Sena contested 169 seats and the BJP 119 (up by two from 2004). The Sena won 44 seats, plus that of an independent supported by it (Vivek Pandit- Vasai) against the BJP's 46, not counting the by-poll victories. A senior BJP leader says the party is likely to win more seats than the Sena as it has strong second-rung and local leaders. The BJP is trying to shed its underdog status within the saffron alliance and edge out the Sena as the dominant partner. The BJP also believes that after the death of Bal Thackeray in 2012, the Sena is on the backfoot.

Why are state BJP leaders less sanguine?
"The delay in seat-sharing decisions will mean that, with little time left for polls, we will have to settle for lesser number of seats," says a state leader. The saffron allies are then likely to leave 20 seats for their partners. The BJP could get over 125 seats and the Sena will likely walk off with the remaining seats.

What's the Sangli stand-off?
The Sena has refused to part with the Sangli seat to the BJP despite Union minister and former BJP president Nitin Gadkari's personal intervention. Gadkari supports former minister and powerful local leader Ajitrao Ghorpade, who wants to take on home minister R R Patil from Tasgaon- Kavathe Mahankal in Sangli. The Sena says the seat is part of its quota and if it has to be handed over to the BJP, the latter must, in turn, give one of the three constituencies in the district represented by BJP MLAs.

What's Uddhav Thackeray saying?
"I do not watch dreams, but I do not run away from responsibilities.... If I get to shoulder the responsibility, I will make Maharashtra the number one state," he said while speaking at a programme organised by a news channel.

Who all form part of the Sena alliance?
Apart from the Sena and the BJP, the saffron alliance or Mahayuti consists of Dalit leader Ramdas Athavale's RPI, farmer leader Raju Shetti's Swabhimaani Shetkari Sanghatana, Dhangar leader Mahadeo Jankar's Rashtriya Samaj Paksha and MLC Vinayak Mete's Shivasangram.