Maharashtra Elections 2014: Independents expected to play key role in multi-polar contest

With nearly three times the number of independents likely to contest the assembly election next month as compared with the number five years ago, it seems they would play a key role in what is already a sharply divided contest.

What is the number of independents?
A total 7,666 candidates have filed their nominations for the 288 constituencies, three-quarter of them independents or from little-know parties.
A majority of the independents are expected to remain in the contest after the scrutiny of nominations on Monday and the last day of withdrawals on Tuesday.

How many contested in the last poll?
In the 2009 election, about 1,820 independents contested and won 24 seats. Significantly, they polled more than 15% of the votes which was a lot more than any of the smaller parties like the RPI, MNS or even SP.
Among these winners were Mansigrao Naik (Shirala), Sahebrao Patil (Amalner), Makarand Jadhav (Vai), Suresh Deshmukh (Wardha), Balasaheb Patil (Karad north), and Dilip Sopal (Barshi). Many of the independent winners were rebels from the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party.

Why are they a worry this time?
With the major alliances collapsing, the votes will be divided between the candidates of the major parties which would also reduce the margin of victory in many cases.
In such a situation, the votes cast for independent candidates could impact the result for the major parties.
In the 2009 election, the winning margin in at least 15 constituencies was less than 3,000. The average number of voters in each constituency was between 1.5 lakh and 3 lakh.

What is the response of major parties?
A senior political leader admitted as much. "With the winning margin likely to be quite thin, the votes polled by the independents may decide the outcome in many seats. We are trying our best to manage these independents," the leader said.
Many among the independent candidates contest merely for the experience of the election. They have little resources or capacity to win, but could earn some fame.
However, many are fielded by parties with the aim of eating into the votes of the rival candidate. But some who are rebels from the major parties could win the contest.

What about govt formation?
In 2004, 19 independents were elected and in 1999 there were 12 independents who became MLAs. Independents scored their highest number in 1995 winning in 45 constituencies, grabbing a quarter of the votes cast.
Surendra Jondhale, political commentator, said: "A higher number of independents contesting this time would not only decide the outcome on many seats, but they could even win many of the seats where the major alliance partners have split."
A Congress leader said the smaller parties, like debutant AIMIM, could play spoiler in many seats.
Observers also speculated that in the case of a hung assembly, the winning independent candidates would play a crucial in the formation of the next government.