Lok Sabha elections: Situation in Raigad still fluid

Raigad Lok Sabha constituency, which is about 130km from Mumbai, is all set to witness a multi-pronged high-profile contest.

It comprises six assembly segments of which Pen, Alibag and Shrivardhan were earlier part of the erstwhile Kolaba Lok Sabha constituency; and the segments of Mahad, Dapoli and Guhagar were part of Ratnagiri Lok Sabha constituency. Raigad has been electing Congress and PWP candidates alternatively till the last election when a Shiv Sena candidate won here.

Interestingly, all the major parties (NCP, PWP and Shiv Sena) involved in the contest here have two MLAs each representing them. The NCP, which managed to wrest the seat from the Congress in the seat-sharing deal, has fielded water resources minister Sunil Tatkare; Shiv Sena has nominated its sitting MP, Anant Geete, and PWP has fielded former NCP MLA Ramesh Kadam. AAP candidate, former police official Sanjay Apranti, also figures in the list of candidates.

Political pundits say this time around the situation is fluid and it's difficult to predict the outcome of the battle, which is yet to warm up. In 2009, the fight was between just two—Congress-NCP and Shiv Sena-PWP candidates. Geete was the winner then, having scored over former chief minister AR Antulay by 1,46,521 votes.

PWP has now parted ways with the Sena and has fielded Ramesh Kadam, who also has the support of the MNS, queering the pitch for the Sena. The MNS, however, does not have much of a presence in the constituency except for Khed municipality. But interestingly, PWP is in alliance with the Sena in the Raigad Zilla Parishad. 

To muddle matters further, Antulay, who is cut up with the Congress for not having consulted him while handing over the seat to NCP, has declared his support to Ramesh Kadam. Besides, Antulay also has scores to settle with his protégé Tatkare, who shifted loyalties to the NCP, and he is working overtime to defeat Tatkare.

Sena and PWP were former allies, but parted company on the issue of rehabilitation of project affected persons (PAP). PWP leader Jayant Patil was also unhappy with the role played by Geete and Sena leadership in the issue of the grand alliance. "Corruption will be an issue against Tatkare. The Antulay factor will also work against him. Geete's performance as an MP has been good, but within the Sena too there are rumblings; former leader of opposition Ramdas Kadam is refusing to campaign for its candidate," said political analyst Amar Warde.

DK Khanvilkar, former minister (NCP), said: "Geete is not seen as an effective MP, but Tatkare is considered able and smart. Hence, Tatkare appears to have an edge." "Tatkare has the support of Congress leaders here, except Antulay, who has a certain following among Congress activists, and sway over minorities," said a Congress leader. "It will not be easy for Tatkare. Geete was elected to parliament five times; moreover, he belongs to the Kunbi community," said an NCP leader.

Ramesh Kadam is expected to make the contest fiercer. He has pockets of influence in Guhagar and Khed, and PWP has its traditional voters in Alibaug and Pen areas.

AAP candidate Apranti will win votes from among the PAP, tribals and the middle class given his clean image.

In 2009 election
Anant Geete, Shiv Sena (winner) - votes polled – 4,13546
AR Antulay, Congress- votes polled – 2,67025
Pravin Thakur, Congress rebel – votes polled:- 39,159.