While most say Opposition failed to deploy a coherent strategy, story remains that Mumbai opts for saffron
Eventually, it turned out to be like the parable about the four blind men and the elephant — with each trying to derive their own conclusion about the dimensions of beast, but arriving at piecemeal versions of the truth.
The Shiv Sena-BJP's success in the Lok Sabha polls in Mumbai has led to a similar situation, with leaders from both winning and losing parties deriving their own conclusions. But the story doesn't end there as these results will have a direct bearing on the state Assembly polls due later this year. Mumbai sends 36 MLAs to the Assembly.
Here are the details of results in Mumbai:
Mumbai South Central Lok Sabha Election Result 2019
Mumbai North West Lok Sabha Election Result 2019
Mumbai North East Lok Sabha Election Result 2019
Mumbai North Central Lok Sabha Election Result 2019
Mumbai South Lok Sabha Election Result 2019
Mumbai North Lok Sabha Election Result 2019
Results speak
In the prestigious Mumbai South constituency, where even Sena and Congress veterans were flummoxed over which way the election would go, Sawant defeated Congress veteran Milind Deora.
In 2004, Gaikwad emerged as a giant-killer by defeating then Lok Sabha speaker Manohar Joshi. He repeated the feat in 2009 against the Sena's Suresh Gambhir, largely due to the presence of MNS' Shweta Parulkar in the fray. However, he has earned the tag of two-time loser now.
Of the six seats from Mumbai, Congress leaders believed they had a chance in at least two — Mumbai South and Mumbai North-Central.
In Mumbai North-West, the Sena's old warhorse Gajanan Kirtikar defeated former Mumbai Congress chief Sanjay Nirupam while Gopal Shetty emerged one up on actress Urmila Matondkar in Mumbai North. The BJP's decision to replace sitting MP Kirit Somaiya with corporator Manoj Kotak seemed to have worked in Mumbai North East.
The reasons
"There was tremendous anger against the state and central governments and individual MPs, but the opposition failed to convert this into votes. They lacked collective leadership," suggested a senior Shiv Sena leader.
He said the Congress should have deployed All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary Priyanka Gandhi in Mumbai to capture floating and incremental votes. "This would have also ensured a better turnout of Muslims, minorities and sections of Dalits," he explained.
Falling back on an oft-repeated dictum in politics about "only the Congress being able to defeat the Congress," a senior leader admitted that they had been hoisted with their own petard. For one, a large section of the Congress leadership in Mumbai was said to be at odds with Sanjay Nirupam, while some candidates like Milind Deora (South) and Priya Dutt (North Central), were perceived to have been distant and cut-off from voters for almost five years.
Though areas like Bharat Nagar and Chandivali in Mumbai North-Central and Mankhurd-Shivaji Nagar in Mumbai North-East have a substantial Muslim population, the Congress and NCP cadre failed to ensure they turned out decisively.
"Our organisation was too weak to fight the BJP juggernaut. Just ideology cannot get us votes. The Hindutva and nationalism saw the BJP through. The extent of the loss was unexpected," said a Congress Rajya Sabha MP.
A BJP legislator admitted that a better choice of candidates by the Congress may have helped win back voters, who had deviated to the BJP and Shiv Sena in 2014. For instance, a younger face in South Central or Matondkar being fielded against Kirtikar may have thrown up a different mandate. "Rahul Gandhi was addressing rallies across India, but the Congress organisation put in little effort in Mumbai," he noted.
Politics of language
Meanwhile, a Congress leader theorised that "Things would have been different if there were MNS candidates in the fray. MNS voters preferred to go with the Shiv Sena-BJP and their support to the Congress-NCP also polarised some North Indian votes against us."
The Congress veteran said that despite differences in the Shiv Sena-BJP, the leadership had ensured that dissenting leaders fell in line. "North Indians reposed their faith in the BJP. The BJP, in turn, has worked hard to woo them by roping in leaders like (former MLA) Rajhans Singh, and around 18 of its corporators are from North India," the Congress leader explained. Another Shiv Sena leader said this was "an election of undercurrents rather than a wave."
"In these elections, there were too many competing currents involved, including polarisation between Maharashtrians and non-Maharashtrians, including Gujaratis and Marwadis, who are the BJP's core voters. However, the Shiv Sena's grassroots organisation and the there-is-no-alternative (TINA) factor in Narendra Modi's favour helped the saffron alliance overcome this," he noted.
The Sena leader said that they had around 2 to 2.5 lakh committed voters in every Lok Sabha constituency. "We have a better starting point due to our strong cadre. It is impossible for individual candidates to reach out to a constituency of 15 to 17 lakh electors. To win, one needs around 3.5 to 4 lakh votes, and here again, our organisation comes into the picture. Our voters hail from slums, chawls and middle-income group areas, and hence turn out in better numbers than supporters of other parties. Our cadre works hard to get the remaining votes," he added.
Why the Sena keeps winning
- While the number of Marathi-speakers in Mumbai is dwindling—they are said to account for a fourth of the city's population—they are better organised and rough-and-ready than other linguistic groups.
- This, plus, the gradual development of a "minority complex" and the "reward economy" fostered by its control over the cash-rich BMC, ensures the Shiv Sena finds it easier to mobilise them politically.
- Sena also has a wide social base among Maharashtrians, including sections of Hindu Dalits, also some Gujaratis and Hindi-speakers.
- Perception that Rahul Gandhi could not have served as an alternative to Modi also helped.
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