Gloom and doom: World climate changes, but for the worse

The United Nations will be releasing its fifth assessment report (AR5) on climate change releasing this Friday, and it paints a grimmer picture of global warming that we had imagined.

Despite questions from sceptics, climate change is making its presence even more felt with the increasingly frequent weather anomalies and natural calamities. For years now, the climate change debate has trudged along trying to ask a rapidly developing world to change and adapt.

The main perpetrator of global warming is carbon dioxide (CO2) which comprises 80% of the problem. On May 9 this year, as per the Mauna Loa research facility in Hawaii, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels touched 400 parts per million (ppm), the highest recorded level since measurements began in 1958.

“Today, we are producing more carbon dioxide than the earth can absorb, and even though developed nations are responsible for maximum of those emissions, it is the South Asian countries that are most vulnerable. Emissions are directly related to industrial growth and the rate at which we are moving, we will lose out on space for future development,” says Sunita Narain, director general of the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) and a member of the Prime Minister’s Council for Climate Change.

In its 4th assessment report (AR4) of 2007, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had stated that 90% of emissions were man made, and a leaked copy of the AR5 says this has now reportedly increased to 95%.

The AR4 also predicted atmospheric CO2 was to touch 450ppm by 2050. Experts are seeing an annual increase of 1.5 degrees in the global temperature today, and have predicted a rise of 2- 2.4 degrees if the CO2 level crosses 450ppm.

“To make sure we are below the limit of 2 degrees, we will have to cut down on 85 per cent of our emissions till 2050, which will be impossible if we don’t start shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy,” says Sunita.

The IPCC has also predicted a rise in the number of extreme weather events and natural calamities such as floods, droughts, cloud bursts, heat waves etc.

“We are initiating State Action Plans on Climate Change and while I believe mitigation is important, we need to focus on adaptation. Huge budgets have been prepared for these SAPs but we don’t get everything we wish for. We need to bridge the gap between what we want and what can be covered in our existing system,” says Ravi S Prasad, joint secretary, Union ministry of environment and forests (MoEF).

What is Global warming?
Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane and halocarbons, in the atmosphere have the ability to retain solar heat and create an insulatory blanket around the earth leading to an increase in global temperature. Global warming is supposed to primarily affect the temperature, precipitation, sea level and the frequency of extreme natural events. Climate change refers to change in weather patterns over centuries, while weather in itself is a daily affair.