The lacklustre performance of the Congress and the NCP, and the stupendous rise of the BJP is likely to end the Maratha-Kunbi dominance in Maharashtra politics!

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Why is that so?In the first BJP-led 10-member cabinet, the representation of Marathas is merely 20%. In the former Congress-NCP governments, it was 80%. This time there are only 107 Marathas in the house of 288. There used to be 150-200 before. Besides, in the voting pattern also there is a shift, with Marathas-Kunbi community preferring to vote BJP-Sena rather than Congress and NCP.

Why the shift in loyalty?According to Surendra Jhondale, political science professor in Mumbai University, lower middle class Marathas are shifting loyalty to BJP and Sena. "Upper class Marathas are still with NCP. In fact, NCP's vote share rose by 1% in 2014 assembly elections. Marathas did not accommodate the lower class Marathas, mostly Kunbis, in the power structure because of the limited space and dynastic politics. However, with this class aspiring to climb the political ladder and becoming more ambitious, they began shifting loyalty. They now want a share in power and BJP and Sena have been obliging," said Jhondale.

Is it a temporary phenomenon?It is, Jhondale said, adding: "The Maratha hegemony in Maharashtra politics will not end easily because of their well-endowed network of co-operatives and control over rural economy. "It's very difficult to break the Cong-NCP network. In the next elections, Maratha-Kunbi will return to their parental fold."

Why did Cong-NCP bite the dust?Shreemant Kokate, a historian and expert on Maratha politics said it's not the monopoly of the Marathas to rule Maharashtra forever. "Actually, traditional working class communities like Marathas, Kunbi, Leva-Patil, Kumbhar, Koli, Dhanghar, etc are the real representatives of Maharashtra and should rule the state," said Kokate.According to Kokate, though Congress-NCP controlled the government for several years, BJP controlled non-governmental organisations like the media. "That helped BJP damage the image of Maratha leaders and create the impression that the last Cong-NCP government was historically the most corrupt government the state had seen. In politics, perceptions matter more than reality. People vote on the basis of perceptions. Besides, Cong-NCP did not support Bahujan organisations to increase their base and spread their thoughts. So, no one supported or countered the arguments created by the media. And hence Congress-NCP was decimated," said Kokate.

BJP social engineeringLiladhar Patil, socio-political scientist from Jalgaon said BJP's politics has always been against the majority caste. "BJP harps on non-majority caste compositions. In Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, they consolidated non-Yadavs, in Gujarat non-Patels, in Maharashtra non-Marathas, in Haryana non-Jats, etc. As a part of its region-wise social engineering in Maharashtra, BJP first separated Wanjari community from Marathas by promoting Gopinath Munde (Wanjari) as its leader in Marathwada, then Eknath Khadse (Leva-patil) in Khandesh, and then tied up with Raju Shetty (Lingayat), farmer leader Mahadeo Jankar (Dhanghar) in western Maharashtra and Ramdas Athawale (Dalit). These minorities were earlier part of the Maratha-Kunbi vote bank. The combination of these isolated minorities together made up almost 65% of the vote share that defeated the majority 35% of Marathas.

Who's behind this operation?The RSS. It has been working on this agenda for the last 40 years and reaped the fruits of its diligent effort in 2014 polls," said Patil.

Blessing in disguise!According to Patil, it's good that Congress-NCP lost the elections badly. "Actually, it's a golden opportunity for them to correct their mistakes and improve their image while remaining out of power. It's also a signal to NCP-Congress leaders not to take Maratha-Kunbi for granted. This rejection is a shock treatment for Cong-NCP leader," said Patil. The next election will show whether Maratha-Kunbi will come back to Cong-NCP or send them to permanent exile.